Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:45:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2e4b…134f crypto 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$318 (-18%) realized −$163 · open −$155
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate37%28W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day23.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$506now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% −$181
world 38% −$174
other 9% −$71
sports 3% +$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 -3.5% -12.7% 37% 34% -26.8%
≤30d 76 -3.5% -12.7% 37% 34% -26.8%
≤90d 76 -3.5% -12.7% 37% 34% -26.8%
all 76 -3.5% -12.7% 37% 34% -26.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.7% 34% -26.8%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 32% -33.8%
15% -28.7% 30% -40.2%
20% -35.7% 26% -46.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$14 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$506
Realized−$163
Unrealized−$155
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses28 / 48
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)76 / 79
History coverage5d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day23.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $655 $500 −$155 (-24%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $6 +$15 +238%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -15%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$8 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$6 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$7 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$14 +266%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +19%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$4 +58%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$9 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$13 +246%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$18 +344%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$29 +287%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $15 −$10 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$6 +119%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$9 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$12 +225%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$50 -95%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 38m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $6 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 57¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $4 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $600 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $8 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $10 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $10 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $5 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $5 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 11h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $506.04 · official $506.04 (match) · 173 history records