Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:40:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2E 0x2e48…08d0 other 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 457d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$14 (+2%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate55%21W / 17L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% +$10
other 41% +$4
crypto 10% $0
weather 2% $0
tech 2% $0
culture 2% −$1
politics 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.9% -8.7% 50% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 8 +6.5% -3.7% 75% 38% -5.4%
≤90d 12 +4.4% -5.6% 67% 25% -6.2%
all 38 +1.9% -7.8% 55% 11% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 11% -7.3%
10% -16.6% 0% -16.2%
15% -24.7% 0% -24.3%
20% -32.1% 0% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×6.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×12.7 per $1 lost it wins $12.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

457d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses21 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage457d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $53 +$1 +2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $53 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $41 +$7 +18%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $44 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $1 $0 +20%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 23 $1 $0 +6%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $3 $0 -6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 22 $35 +$1 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 21 $40 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 20 $8 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 19 $2 $0 -3%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $1 $0 -2%
Will Oprah Winfrey be named in Epstein files? Dec 12 $23 +$1 +2%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 26 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $7 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on May 23? May 22 $10 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? May 22 $11 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 9–16? May 16 $14 +$3 +20%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ma May 14 $13 $0 +2%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1900 on May 16? May 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 2–9? May 10 $13 $0 +1%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? May 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? May 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the UEFA Europa League? May 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? May 07 $23 $0 -0%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 07 $12 $0 -0%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? May 07 $11 $0 -0%
Will federal spending decrease by more than $2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 May 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Apr 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Apr 07 $1 $0 -4%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Apr 06 $13 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Apr 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2025 World Series? Apr 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 650 or more times March 21-28? Mar 29 $13 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 again by March 31? Mar 22 $13 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $54 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $53 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $53 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $53 4d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 93¢ $4 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes $6 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes $5 27d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $44 28d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $44 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 28d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes $1 29d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes $1 29d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $1 29d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 77¢ $32 29d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 77¢ $12 29d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 66¢ $22 29d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 66¢ $19 29d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes $3 29d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes $3 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $34 31d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $34 31d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 73¢ $18 32d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 73¢ $23 32d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 72¢ $40 32d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes $8 32d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes $5 33d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes $3 33d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 33d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 97 history records