Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:20:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

2E 0x2e47…d3c7 other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$424 (+24%) realized +$371 · open +$53

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip

Net edge-3%after slip

Net WR54%break-even

Win rate85%11W / 2L

Drawdown9%max

Avg bet$120per market

Trades / day7.2pace

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$303now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +54%

net ROI/market (all)+1.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	13	+11.9%	+1.2%	85%	54%	+14.8%
≤30d	13	+11.9%	+1.2%	85%	54%	+14.8%
≤90d	13	+11.9%	+1.2%	85%	54%	+14.8%
all	13	+11.9%	+1.2%	85%	54%	+14.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.2 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+1.2%	54%	+14.8%
10%	-8.4%	54%	+3.8%
15%	-17.3%	38%	-6.3%
20%	-25.4%	23%	-15.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 27% · top 2 42% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

36% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +12% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +26% → late +0% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$41 vs −$18 · ×2.27 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×12.48 per $1 lost it wins $12.48

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$303

Realized+$371

Unrealized+$53

Win rate (resolved)85%

Wins / losses11 / 2

Open positions2

Markets (closed)13 / 15

History coverage4d

Avg bet$120

Trades / day7.2

Drawdown9%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 13 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	87¢	94¢	$200	$217	+$17 (+8%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	40¢	69¢	$50	$86	+$36 (+73%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$250	+$61	+24%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$50	+$36	+73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Jun 25	$26	−$26	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Jun 25	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$176	+$65	+37%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$299	+$15	+5%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$200	+$124	+62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Jun 24	$36	+$10	+28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Jun 24	$25	$0	+1%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$135	+$65	+48%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$234	+$9	+4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$92	+$65	+70%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$7	$0	+3%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	40¢	$51	1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	87¢	$201	1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	100¢	$311	2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	81¢	$200	2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	76¢	$50	2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	100¢	$86	21h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	57¢	$50	23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	100¢	$241	24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	57¢	$25	26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	76¢	$151	26h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	100¢	$314	27h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	95¢	$299	27h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	100¢	$323	44h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	61¢	$99	45h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	61¢	$101	45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	BUY Down	80¢	$5	46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	BUY Down	68¢	$5	46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$26	46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	BUY Down	91¢	$5	46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	BUY Down	73¢	$5	46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	BUY Down	75¢	$25	46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	BUY Up	99¢	$25	46h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	100¢	$200	47h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	82¢	$82	2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	52¢	$53	2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$243	2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	96¢	$234	2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$157	3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	58¢	$92	3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	100¢	$8	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $303.12 · official $306.42 · 37 history records