Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:44:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2e45…6b03 other 136 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$50 (-0%) realized −$50 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%18W / 117L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$16
14 days−$23
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 29% −$16
other 27% −$19
sports 16% −$10
crypto 8% −$4
world 8% −$6
culture 4% −$3
finance 4% −$2
economics 3% −$1
tech 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.9% -10.3% 4% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 66 -0.9% -10.3% 3% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 122 -0.6% -10.0% 11% 0% -9.9%
all 135 -0.5% -10.0% 13% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized−$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses18 / 117
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)135 / 136
History coverage100d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $66 $66 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $264 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $332 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $17 $0 -2%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $594 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 16 $61 −$1 -2%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $103 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $40 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $141 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $110 −$1 -1%
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $54 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $100 $0 -0%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 14 $105 −$1 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $144 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $62 −$1 -2%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $39 $0 -0%
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $56 +$1 +1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 12 $58 $0 -1%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $50 $0 -0%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 12 $102 −$1 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $161 −$2 -1%
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $44 −$2 -4%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $44 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 10 $91 −$2 -2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 10 $55 $0 -0%
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 Jun 10 $49 −$2 -4%
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 09 $55 $0 -1%
Will Paraguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $11 $0 -3%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 09 $89 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 07 $52 −$1 -1%
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 07 $45 −$1 -1%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 06 $53 −$1 -2%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $46 $0 -1%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 06 $40 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $249 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $104 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $119 $0 -0%
Will Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Jun 04 $7 $0 -5%
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $45 $0 -0%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 03 $55 $0 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 03 $65 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $48 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $275 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $44 −$1 -2%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $100 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $58 $0 -1%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $57 $0 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 30 $60 −$1 -1%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $249 −$2 -1%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $103 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $66 37m
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $53 1h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $53 7h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $61 7h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $61 13h
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $17 14h
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $17 20h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $51 20h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $51 26h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL No 94¢ $60 27h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 96¢ $61 32h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 94¢ $45 33h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 94¢ $45 41h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 94¢ $58 41h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 94¢ $58 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $40 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $40 2d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $41 2d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $41 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $48 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $48 2d
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $54 2d
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $54 2d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $57 2d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $57 3d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 95¢ $60 3d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 96¢ $61 3d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $36 3d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $36 3d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 96¢ $45 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.92 · official $65.92 (match) · 469 history records