Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:14:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2E 0x2e45…4b13 sports 874 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,469 (+1%) realized +$2,717 · open −$248
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate69%606W / 267L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$224per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$679est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$95
7 days−$226
14 days+$67
30 days+$299
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$2,070
other 12% −$613
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -7.7% -16.5% 62% 62% -23.5%
≤30d 79 +14.3% +3.4% 78% 78% -7.4%
≤90d 562 +2.5% -7.3% 71% 71% -9.9%
all 873 +4.9% -5.1% 69% 69% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 69% -8.7%
10% -14.2% 62% -17.5%
15% -22.5% 39% -25.4%
20% -30.1% 20% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$97 vs −$213 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$2,717
Unrealized−$248
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses606 / 267
Est. fees paid−$679
Open positions1
Markets (closed)873 / 874
History coverage104d
Avg bet$224
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 873 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Yakult Brothers 79¢ 0¢ $250 $2 −$248 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $303 +$145 +48%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 16 $252 −$252 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 15 $252 −$252 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$11 +105%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $201 +$49 +24%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $151 +$49 +32%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $252 +$73 +29%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Geek Fam ID (BO5) - MPL In Jun 11 $151 +$39 +26%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 08 $201 +$40 +20%
Will JT Poston win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Workd Jun 08 $152 +$91 +60%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $10 +$50 +485%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $252 +$118 +47%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 07 $151 +$59 +39%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 07 $252 +$81 +32%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 06 $151 +$69 +46%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $10 +$16 +158%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $251 +$54 +21%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $304 −$304 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $10 +$11 +105%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western Jun 02 $151 +$39 +26%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $251 +$57 +23%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner May 31 $251 +$58 +23%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $252 +$86 +34%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 30 $252 +$73 +29%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif May 30 $151 +$34 +23%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 30 $201 +$43 +21%
LoL: GAM Esports vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs May 30 $151 +$63 +42%
UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, May 30 $201 +$40 +20%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $202 +$106 +52%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 29 $202 +$76 +38%
LoL: Supernova vs Winthrop University (BO5) - North American Challenge May 29 $201 −$201 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $252 +$69 +27%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $252 −$252 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $251 +$50 +20%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $151 +$45 +30%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $201 −$201 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $252 +$65 +26%
Spread: Knicks (-12.5) May 26 $101 +$50 +50%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 25 $202 +$89 +44%
Valorant: Joblife vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Playoffs May 25 $251 +$57 +23%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 3 Winner May 25 $201 +$61 +30%
Real Madrid vs. Joventut May 25 $101 −$101 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox May 25 $101 −$101 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs May 25 $201 +$49 +24%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $101 +$40 +40%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves May 25 $101 +$50 +50%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $101 +$37 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 79¢ $252 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 67¢ $303 12h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 14¢ $51 15h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $252 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 80¢ $252 4d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 48¢ $10 4d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P BUY Eintracht Spandau 80¢ $201 4d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 75¢ $151 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Hanwha Life Esports 77¢ $252 6d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Geek Fam ID (BO5) - MPL In BUY Geek Fam ID 79¢ $151 7d
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 83¢ $201 10d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY Karmine Corp 38¢ $10 10d
Will JT Poston win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Workd BUY Yes 62¢ $152 10d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 68¢ $252 11d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 17¢ $10 11d
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs BUY Team Secret Whales 71¢ $151 11d
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 75¢ $252 11d
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Aurora 44¢ $10 11d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY Karmine Corp 68¢ $151 11d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Team Yandex 38¢ $10 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 82¢ $251 12d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 58¢ $304 14d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western BUY LGD Gaming 79¢ $151 16d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 48¢ $10 16d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 81¢ $251 17d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA 81¢ $251 18d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 74¢ $252 18d
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs BUY LOS 77¢ $252 18d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif BUY Aurora 81¢ $151 18d
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma BUY Song Yadong 82¢ $201 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.58 · official $1.58 (match) · 1750 history records