Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:04:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
2E 0x2e45…bd60 sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 27d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$212 (+26%) realized +$218 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$144now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$96
7 days−$96
14 days−$96
30 days+$205
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$204
other 20% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -19.6% -27.3% 67% 33% -37.7%
≤30d 5 +27.0% +14.9% 80% 60% +18.7%
≤90d 5 +27.0% +14.9% 80% 60% +18.7%
all 5 +27.0% +14.9% 80% 60% +18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.9% 60% +18.7%
10% +3.9% 60% +7.3%
15% -6.2% 40% -3.1%
20% -15.4% 40% -12.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$148 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.39 per $1 lost it wins $2.39
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$144
Realized+$218
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage27d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $150 $144 −$6 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $150 +$51 +34%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $150 −$148 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 +$1 +7%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $300 +$245 +82%
English Premier League: Bruno Fernandes breaks assists record? May 24 $50 +$56 +112%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 74¢ $150 26h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $150 44h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 46¢ $5 3d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $5 3d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 53¢ $100 21d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 55¢ $100 21d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 55¢ $100 21d
English Premier League: Bruno Fernandes breaks assists record? SELL Yes 98¢ $106 27d
English Premier League: Bruno Fernandes breaks assists record? BUY Yes 45¢ $50 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $144.49 · official $144.49 (match) · 14 history records