Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:44:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
2E 0x2e43…0257 crypto 1740 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 54d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,391 (+6%) realized +$2,391 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate90%1570W / 170L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day33.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 54d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$239
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 285 -0.1% -9.6% 93% 12% -9.6%
≤30d 1408 -1.0% -10.5% 89% 15% -10.5%
≤90d 1740 -0.6% -10.1% 90% 15% -10.1%
all 1740 -0.6% -10.1% 90% 15% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 15% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 4% -18.7%
15% -26.5% 1% -26.5%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$17 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,391
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses1570 / 170
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1740 / 1740
History coverage54d ⚠
Avg bet$24
Trades / day33.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1740 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$16 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$17 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $9 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $8 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records