Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:39:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2e43…b356 other 495 markets active 18h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$201 (-4%) realized −$201 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate21%104W / 390L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day20.7pace
Kalshi-fit16%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$35
14 days−$80
30 days−$94
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$319
politics 12% +$76
crypto 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 99 -17.6% -25.4% 12% 12% -26.4%
≤90d 458 +4.6% -5.3% 20% 18% -14.9%
all 494 +3.8% -6.0% 21% 19% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.0% 19% -15.1%
10% ← realistic here -15.0% 18% -23.2%
15% -23.2% 17% -30.6%
20% -30.8% 16% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$7 · ×3.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$201
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses104 / 390
Open positions0
Markets (closed)494 / 495
History coverage109d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day20.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit16%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 494 Trades
no open positions (179 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Khamenei post 20-24 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Khamenei post 25-29 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June 12 Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $12 −$12 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $0 $0 -100%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $7 +$58 +822%
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $10 +$8 +80%
Will White House post 120-139 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $6 −$3 -53%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $13 −$13 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $25 −$24 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $6 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 17h
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $2 18h
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 18h
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 18h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 21h
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 24h
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 30h
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 30h
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 34h
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 34h
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 34h
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 34h
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June BUY Yes 2¢ $3 37h
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June BUY Yes 2¢ $1 38h
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June BUY Yes 2¢ $0 41h
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, BUY Yes 2¢ $2 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, BUY Yes 7¢ $2 4d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, BUY Yes 7¢ $2 4d
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June BUY Yes 7¢ $4 4d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, BUY Yes 7¢ $0 4d
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4d
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4d
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4d
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4d
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2484 history records