Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T12:27:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2E
0x2e42…0dfe
world · 114 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$2,139 +40%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,810 · open +$19
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$139
Realized+$1,810
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses114 / 120
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions48
Markets (closed)234 / 114
History coverage54d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day59.1
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 48 History 234 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$645
7 days+$657
14 days+$1,352
30 days+$1,776
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $27 $37 +$10 (+38%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+10%)
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $8 $7 −$0 (-5%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+50%)
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+213%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+45%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Yes 22¢ 56¢ $2 $6 +$3 (+157%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+72%)
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+22%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+32%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 13¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+990%)
Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by June 30? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+71%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 28¢ 64¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+129%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland before 2027? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+146%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-49%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 6¢ 16¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+167%)
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-11 House seat? Yes 23¢ 11¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-52%)
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-34%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 13¢ 40¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+195%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 34¢ 34¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-73%)
Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027? Yes 9¢ 21¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+138%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 5¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$1 (+90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 10, 2026? Jun 13 $0 +$66 +51520%
Will Conservative win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Jun 13 $0 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Jun 13 $0 +$2 +964%
Will the Bank of Canada announce a 50+ bps decrease at the March meeti Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on March 4? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from February 27 to Ma Jun 13 $0 $0 -20%
Will Nils Walker be the Republican Nominee for TX-30? Jun 13 $0 +$1 +223%
Will Ninjas in Pyjamas win the LPL 2026 Split 1 playoffs? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on February 2 Jun 13 $0 +$3 +2014%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 7? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by March 31? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Apple dip to $220 in February? Jun 13 $0 $0 -89%
Will Meta Platforms (META) be the top performing Magnificent 7 company Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will a contestant numbered 176 - 200 win Beast Games: Season 2? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will DtMF by Bad Bunny be the Billboard #1 song for the week of March Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 7? Jun 13 $1 +$2 +246%
Will Iran strike UAE in March? Jun 13 $0 $0 +40%
Will Meta reach $730 in February? Jun 13 $0 $0 -40%
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 15? Jun 13 $1 +$2 +375%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 26, 2026? Jun 13 $13 +$24 +187%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Jun 13 $0 +$16 +65832%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 1? Jun 13 $0 $0 -33%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on March 6? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 +20%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Kazakhstan? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Israel strike on Damascus by March 31, 2026? Jun 13 $2 +$4 +234%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 4°C on March 4? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will there be 16–18 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Jun 13 $0 +$5 +4662%
Will the US accuse Iran of Oslo Embassy attack? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of February? Jun 13 $0 $0 +142%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 8, 2026? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -52%
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 13 $0 $0 +11%
Will Chuck Schumer applaud during Trump's State of the Union? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 28, 202 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -86%
Foreign intervention in Gaza by March 31? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in February? Jun 13 $0 $0 -44%
US x Iran meeting by February 28, 2026? Jun 13 $0 +$3 +1027%
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on Spotify this we Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on March 5? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on February 2 Jun 13 $0 $0 +12%
Will the price of Solana be between $120 and $130 on March 7? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will annual inflation increase by ≥2.7% in February? Jun 13 $0 +$1 +741%
Will Paradex launch a token by March 31 2026? Jun 13 $0 +$1 +104%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on February 2 Jun 13 $0 +$13 +211525%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $215 on March 9? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on March 1? Jun 13 $0 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from February 27 to Jun 13 $0 +$6 +5085%
Will Kanye tweet again by February 28? Jun 13 $0 $0 +88%
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Apple (AAPL) close at <$240 on the final day of trading of the we Jun 13 $1 $0 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 76% +$1,222
politics 18% $0
finance 3% +$60
other 3% +$20
crypto 0% +$10
sports 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 1h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 4h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 4h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 2¢ $6 4h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 5h
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 14h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $8 14h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $8 14h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 14h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 14h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 14h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 15h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 13¢ $7 16h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 13¢ $7 16h
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 17h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 18h
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 18h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 19h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 20h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 20h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 20h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 21h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 21h
Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 21h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 23h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+274.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 159 +288.7% +251.7% 45% 42% +61.2%
≤30d 226 +305.2% +266.6% 48% 44% +17.9%
≤90d 234 +313.5% +274.1% 49% 45% +18.6%
all 234 +313.5% +274.1% 49% 45% +18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover59.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +274.1% 45% +18.6%
10% ← realistic here +238.3% 43% +7.2%
15% +205.6% 40% -3.1%
20% +175.7% 38% -12.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $138.60 · official $138.61 (match) · 3500 history records