trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 15 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 0% | 0% | -9.7% |
| ≤30d | 15 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 0% | 0% | -9.7% |
| ≤90d | 15 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 0% | 0% | -9.7% |
| all | 41 | -29.9% | -36.6% | 10% | 10% | -12.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -36.6% | 10% | -12.9% |
| 10% | -42.7% | 10% | -21.3% |
| 15% | -48.2% | 10% | -28.9% |
| 20% | -53.3% | 10% | -35.8% |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? | Jun 15 | $180 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? | Jun 15 | $280 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? | Jun 15 | $300 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jun 12 | $180 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jun 12 | $270 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jun 12 | $310 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin | Jun 12 | $320 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Jun 12 | $540 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Jun 12 | $670 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Jun 11 | $150 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Jun 11 | $220 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Jun 11 | $390 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | Jun 10 | $140 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | Jun 10 | $290 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | Jun 10 | $340 | $0 | -0% |
| Kings vs. Capitals | Nov 17 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Warriors vs. Bucks | Oct 30 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Senators vs. Sabres | Oct 15 | $19 | −$19 | -100% |
| Capitals vs. Rangers | Oct 15 | $7 | +$7 | +100% |
| Nationals vs. Braves | Sep 22 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Chargers vs. Raiders | Sep 15 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Mets vs. Phillies | Sep 11 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Astros vs. Yankees | Aug 08 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Will Jason Calacanis win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship | Aug 07 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Braves vs. Reds | Aug 01 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Diamondbacks vs. Tigers | Jul 29 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | May 12 | $5 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | May 07 | $6 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Apr 17 | $3 | $0 | -3% |
| Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? | Apr 10 | $5 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? | Apr 09 | $5 | $0 | -0% |
| Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Apr 07 | $5 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 17 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the New York Islanders win the 2025 President’s Trophy? | Feb 25 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Mavericks vs. 76ers | Feb 05 | $105 | −$105 | -100% |
| Will "Dog Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $25m? | Feb 04 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Magic vs. Warriors | Feb 04 | $152 | +$101 | +67% |
| Mavericks vs. Pistons | Feb 03 | $103 | −$103 | -100% |
| Bucks vs. Heat | Nov 27 | $96 | −$96 | -100% |
| Hawks vs. Bulls | Nov 26 | $43 | +$48 | +113% |
| Pistons vs. Hornets | Nov 22 | $22 | +$22 | +100% |