Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:05:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
2E 0x2e3e…1a2c other 14 markets active 1d ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$199 (+68%) realized +$199 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate21%3W / 11L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% +$191
sports 15% +$8
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)+0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 +1.1% -8.5% 50% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 10 -8.5% -17.2% 10% 0% -10.4%
all 14 +10.7% +0.1% 21% 14% +52.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.1% 14% +52.2%
10% -9.5% 14% +37.6%
15% -18.2% 14% +24.3%
20% -26.2% 14% +12.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +68% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$0 · ×544.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×163.44 per $1 lost it wins $163.44
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$199
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses3 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage100d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $12 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Hellas Verona FC 1 - 0 AS Roma? May 25 $6 $0 +2%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $1 $0 -17%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $14 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $1 $0 -20%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 07 $20 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 29 $14 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Mar 24 $30 $0 -0%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 20 $1 −$1 -50%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 17 $14 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 15 $169 +$191 +113%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 12 $1 $0 -6%
SS Lazio vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 2.5 Mar 11 $7 +$9 +127%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $12 33h
Exact Score: Hellas Verona FC 1 - 0 AS Roma? BUY No 98¢ $6 25d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $12 57d
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes $1 58d
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $1 62d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $14 63d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $14 67d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 67d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 71d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 100¢ $20 72d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $20 75d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 76d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 80d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $14 80d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $14 84d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 85d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 88d
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes $1 89d
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes $1 91d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $14 93d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $14 96d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 97d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-14? BUY No 47¢ $169 99d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 100d
SS Lazio vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $7 101d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 81 history records