Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:48:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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2E 0x2e3d…b56c sports 1469 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 114d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,802 (-8%) realized −$1,810 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate39%575W / 891L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day21.8pace
Fees−$146est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$21
14 days+$74
30 days−$157
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$1,411
other 27% +$116
crypto 9% −$342
world 1% −$21
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +11.6% +1.0% 44% 44% -3.7%
≤30d 73 +0.3% -9.3% 41% 41% -20.5%
≤90d 831 -7.3% -16.2% 39% 39% -15.1%
all 1466 -9.1% -17.7% 39% 38% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.7% 38% -16.0%
10% ← realistic here -25.6% 38% -24.0%
15% -32.8% 37% -31.4%
20% -39.4% 34% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$12 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$1,810
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses575 / 891
Est. fees paid−$146
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1466 / 1469
History coverage114d ⚠
Avg bet$16
Trades / day21.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1466 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $18 $27 +$9 (+49%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Over 38¢ 38¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Over 22¢ 20¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 110 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 +$17 +163%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$6 +58%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$4 +44%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 +$23 +112%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$15 +150%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $20 +$26 +127%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$20 +194%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$14 +139%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $13 +$43 +323%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$14 +136%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$6 +61%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $8 $0 -5%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $61 −$60 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $31 −$2 -6%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $9 +$28 +299%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$21 +105%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$18 +172%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $17 +$7 +40%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 04 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 03 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 03 $24 −$24 -99%
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $35 −$34 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $15 +$20 +129%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $56 −$55 -98%
Aalesunds FK vs. Hamarkameratene: O/U 2.5 May 29 $20 +$15 +73%
Will AC Monza win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Saint-Etienne win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $20 −$20 -98%
Will SK Brann win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $20 −$20 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $30 +$20 +65%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $29 −$28 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Nice win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 11.5 May 26 $19 +$16 +83%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $24 +$19 +79%
Will Sandefjord Fotball win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $20 +$14 +70%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 13.5 May 24 $18 −$18 -99%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $20 +$18 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 22¢ $10 37m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $20 38m
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Netherlands 91¢ $27 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 93¢ $16 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 2h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 34¢ $10 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 29¢ $14 16h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 85¢ $15 19h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 22h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 20¢ $10 24h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $19 43h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $8 44h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $43 46h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $20 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 97¢ $25 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 2d
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Ghana 19¢ $6 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $46 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 99¢ $30 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 43¢ $20 2d
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 15¢ $10 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 33¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $24 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $10 3d
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Austria 24¢ $10 3d
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) SELL Argentina 88¢ $56 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $0 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 99¢ $24 3d
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 18¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.83 · official $55.83 (match) · 3500 history records