Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:37:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

2E 0x2e3a…bdff sports 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 79d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$30 (-21%) realized −$40 · open +$10

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip

Net edge-13%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$48per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 79d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-12.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+93.0%	+74.6%	100%	100%	+74.6%
≤30d	1	+93.0%	+74.6%	100%	100%	+74.6%
≤90d	2	-3.5%	-12.7%	50%	50%	-32.1%
all	2	-3.5%	-12.7%	50%	50%	-32.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-12.7%	50%	-32.1%
10%	-21.0%	50%	-38.6%
15%	-28.7%	50%	-44.5%
20%	-35.7%	50%	-50.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -25% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -3% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$42 vs −$71 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.59 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage

Net worth$36

Realized−$40

Unrealized+$10

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage79d

Avg bet$48

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5)	9z	56¢	76¢	$26	$36	+$10 (+37%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner	Jun 18	$45	+$42	+93%
Will Denmark win on 2026-03-31?	Mar 31	$72	−$71	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5)	BUY 9z	56¢	$26	1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner	SELL Aurora Gaming	100¢	$87	1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner	BUY Aurora Gaming	51¢	$45	5h
Will Denmark win on 2026-03-31?	BUY Yes	31¢	$32	78d
Will Denmark win on 2026-03-31?	BUY Yes	47¢	$40	79d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.52 · official $35.52 (match) · 5 history records