Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:49:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2e36…593e crypto 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$74 (-21%) realized −$73 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate43%20W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$69
7 days−$72
14 days−$82
30 days−$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$69
crypto 49% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -31.1% -37.7% 36% 36% -54.1%
≤30d 47 -0.9% -10.4% 43% 36% -34.6%
≤90d 47 -0.9% -10.4% 43% 36% -34.6%
all 47 -0.9% -10.4% 43% 36% -34.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 36% -34.6%
10% -19.0% 36% -40.9%
15% -26.8% 34% -46.6%
20% -34.0% 32% -51.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$73
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses20 / 27
Open positions2
Markets (closed)47 / 49
History coverage8d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 3 Argentina? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $19 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 27 $2 +$3 +138%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 2 Spain? Jun 27 $19 −$18 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $39 −$35 -90%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Spain? Jun 27 $45 −$30 -66%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $29 +$15 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 24 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 24 $2 +$1 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$1 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 20 $2 +$1 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 20 $4 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$6 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$4 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 20 $4 +$4 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 20 $9 −$7 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 20 $2 +$8 +420%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 20 $2 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8PM ET Jun 20 $1 +$2 +187%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 20 $7 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $4 +$7 +164%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 20 $9 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 20 $6 +$5 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 20 $4 +$7 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 20 $6 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 20 $2 +$5 +225%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 19 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 19 $6 +$8 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 19 $2 +$3 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4PM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 29¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 3 Argentina? BUY Yes 16¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 16h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 2 Spain? BUY Yes 19¢ $19 17h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 17h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Spain? SELL Yes 4¢ $15 17h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 16¢ $39 19h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Spain? BUY Yes 11¢ $45 19h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 64¢ $29 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.47 · official $43.48 (match) · 106 history records