Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:23:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2e32…1c37 sports 168 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (86 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$26 (+2%) realized +$76 · open −$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate47%63W / 70L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day85.8pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$30
14 days−$2
30 days+$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$15
politics 32% +$72
crypto 8% −$13
world 7% −$54
other 2% −$9
culture 1% +$1
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (86 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -23.0% -30.4% 42% 31% -25.8%
≤30d 133 -11.4% -19.8% 47% 40% -3.9%
≤90d 133 -11.4% -19.8% 47% 40% -3.9%
all 133 -11.4% -19.8% 47% 40% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover85.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.8% 40% -3.9%
10% ← realistic here -27.5% 33% -13.1%
15% -34.5% 26% -21.5%
20% -40.9% 22% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized+$76
Unrealized−$50
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses63 / 70
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions35
Markets (closed)133 / 168
History coverage14d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day85.8
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? Yes 87¢ 80¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-8%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 25¢ 99¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+298%)
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 4¢ 7¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+57%)
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Tunisia 89¢ 84¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 44¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 3¢ 1¢ $14 $3 −$11 (-79%)
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? Yes 55¢ 44¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-21%)
Trump talks to Cuba leader Diaz-Canel by June 30? Yes 10¢ 14¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+35%)
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 36¢ 84¢ $1 $3 +$1 (+135%)
Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential election be canceled? No 41¢ 48¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+17%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? Yes 50¢ 95¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+90%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Will Brian Mundubile win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? No 83¢ 86¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 38¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+162%)
Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? No 37¢ 55¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+47%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the 2026 California Governor Primary Election by 5–10%? No 85¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will Jeremy Matlow win the Tallahassee mayoral election? Yes 15¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+30%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the 2026 California Governor Primary Election by less than 5%? Yes 85¢ 93¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election? Yes 11¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? No 95¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06? Yes 96¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 83¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will voter turnout be at least 80% in the first round of the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? No 85¢ 91¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 93¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -92%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +102%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 15 $8 $0 +1%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 15 $16 +$1 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 -4%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +61%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $4 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 14, 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +61%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +77%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +88%
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Jun 13 $9 −$1 -12%
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? Jun 13 $2 $0 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $1 $0 +34%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +57%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $44 +$2 +5%
Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate Jun 11 $2 −$1 -39%
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 10 $9 −$4 -46%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $2 +$6 +309%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 09 $31 +$26 +84%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 11.5 Jun 09 $4 +$1 +22%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) Jun 09 $2 +$4 +156%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 09 $1 $0 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 29m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 35m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 50m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 51m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 52m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.34 · official $68.84 · 1336 history records