Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:38:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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2E 0x2e31…d5fd crypto 325 markets active 2h ago coverage 134d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 134d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,382 (-0%) realized −$5,471 · open +$89
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate54%162W / 137L
Whale WR39%big bets
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$7,130per market
Trades / day22.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$24,329now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 134d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$6,756
other 0% −$26
sports 0% −$27
world 0% −$86
politics 0% −$17
tech 0% −$4
culture 0% +$5
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -5.0% -14.1% 78% 12% -9.3%
≤30d 93 -2.5% -11.8% 58% 17% -9.4%
≤90d 225 +1.9% -7.8% 49% 22% -9.5%
all 299 +6.6% -3.5% 54% 22% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.5% 22% -9.5%
10% -12.7% 15% -18.2%
15% ← realistic here -21.2% 12% -26.1%
20% -28.9% 9% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 39% (≥$16,000) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
9.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$6 · ×7.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.39 per $1 lost it wins $8.39
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$24,329
Realized−$5,471
Unrealized+$89
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses162 / 137
Whale WR (big bets)39%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions35
Markets (closed)299 / 325
History coverage134d ⚠
Avg bet$7,130
Trades / day22.7
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 299 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 29? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $13,013 $13,035 +$23 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 29? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $6,708 $6,796 +$89 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 29? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,941 $1,953 +$11 (+1%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 29? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,408 $1,412 +$4 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? Yes 85¢ 95¢ $604 $672 +$67 (+11%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 29? Yes 92¢ 98¢ $110 $117 +$7 (+7%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 35¢ 52¢ $50 $76 +$26 (+52%)
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 78¢ 86¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+10%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 11¢ $60 $39 −$21 (-35%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 44¢ 24¢ $50 $28 −$22 (-44%)
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30? No 84¢ 100¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+19%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 97¢ 98¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 29? No 0¢ 0¢ $13 $20 +$6 (+50%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 66¢ 57¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-13%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 73¢ 44¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-40%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 77¢ 92¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+19%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 29? No 71¢ 76¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 97¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 54¢ 38¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-30%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 29? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 79¢ 82¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 19¢ 6¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-69%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-45%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 25¢ 17¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 28? Jun 28 $2,723 +$20 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 28? Jun 28 $1,400 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 28? Jun 28 $522 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 28? Jun 28 $4,005 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? Jun 28 $8,102 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 28? Jun 28 $4,119 +$48 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 28? Jun 28 $3,008 −$3 -0%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $7,508 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $7,375 +$57 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $5,959 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $3,004 +$9 +0%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $12,719 +$24 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $2,007 +$63 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $4,010 +$40 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $5,006 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $8,013 +$72 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $7,516 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $8,109 +$7 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $13,416 +$93 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $9,944 +$12 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $12,013 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $3,881 +$8 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $2,372 +$23 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $5,010 $0 +0%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 +$3 +55%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 +$2 +38%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $8,010 +$13 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $15,517 −$1 -0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$1 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $5,487 +$10 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $18,019 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $13,413 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $10,011 −$1 -0%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$2 +17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $3,704 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $17,736 +$43 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $2,002 $0 -0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $22,025 +$17 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $1,401 $0 -0%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$3 +67%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $12,919 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $10,107 −$1 -0%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +42%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 29? BUY No 0¢ $13 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $500 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $170 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,987 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,994 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $779 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 84¢ $101 15h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 29? BUY No 99¢ $100 15h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 29? BUY No 71¢ $10 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 29? BUY No 99¢ $200 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 86¢ $4 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 86¢ $214 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 29? BUY No 99¢ $10 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,000 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 29? BUY No 99¢ $220 15h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 29? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $500 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $60 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 98¢ $300 15h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 29? BUY Yes 92¢ $101 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $3,001 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 98¢ $100 15h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 29? BUY No 99¢ $300 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 29? BUY No 99¢ $500 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 98¢ $398 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 98¢ $300 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 85¢ $289 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24,329.42 · official $24,329.42 (match) · 3500 history records