Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:33:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2e2f…7212 sports 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 331d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$87 (-12%) realized −$109 · open +$22
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$264now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$65
7 days−$65
14 days−$65
30 days−$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$124
other 34% +$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-41.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -20.3% -27.9% 44% 44% -22.4%
≤30d 9 -20.3% -27.9% 44% 44% -22.4%
≤90d 9 -20.3% -27.9% 44% 44% -22.4%
all 11 -34.8% -41.0% 36% 36% -28.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.0% 36% -28.9%
10% -46.6% 27% -35.7%
15% -51.8% 27% -41.9%
20% -56.5% 27% -47.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$43 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

331d coverage
Net worth$264
Realized−$109
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions7
Markets (closed)11 / 18
History coverage331d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 65¢ 78¢ $92 $111 +$19 (+21%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Under 39¢ 42¢ $49 $53 +$4 (+8%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Milwaukee Brewers 61¢ 62¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Athletics 60¢ 58¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays 59¢ 60¢ $23 $24 +$0 (+1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Milwaukee Brewers 48¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$62 +62%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $25 −$24 -98%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 19 $19 +$15 +76%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $69 +$114 +165%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $77 −$77 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $82 −$80 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 18 $10 +$1 +13%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5) Jun 18 $72 −$71 -99%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Darwin Nunez sign with a new club during the transfer window? Jul 24 $40 −$40 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 48¢ $10 7m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $29 19m
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $50 22m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $64 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $163 1h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 59¢ $24 1h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Milwaukee Brewers 61¢ $25 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 60¢ $25 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 18¢ $25 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 7h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $17 7h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 37¢ $69 22h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 56¢ $19 23h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 72¢ $77 23h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $82 43h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL San Francisco Giants 100¢ $11 43h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL Chicago White Sox $0 45h
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 73¢ $72 45h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 24¢ $5 46h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 88¢ $10 46h
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes $2 270d
Will Darwin Nunez sign with a new club during the transfer window? BUY No 40¢ $40 330d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $264.13 · official $264.13 (match) · 24 history records