Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:38:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2e28…9ff4 other 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 481d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate45%25W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$1
other 37% −$4
politics 7% +$1
crypto 3% −$1
sports 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 25% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.6% 41% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 17 -0.1% -9.6% 41% 0% -9.7%
all 56 -3.0% -12.3% 45% 2% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 2% -10.0%
10% -20.7% 0% -18.6%
15% -28.3% 0% -26.5%
20% -35.3% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

481d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses25 / 31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)56 / 57
History coverage481d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 24¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $31 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $19 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 20 $64 −$1 -1%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $18 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $49 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $64 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $40 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $32 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $4 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $29 −$1 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $28 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $66 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $32 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $133 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $1 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will Gregory Rusland be the next president of Suriname after the elect Dec 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jun 27 $3 $0 +15%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in June? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -93%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 23 $2 −$1 -45%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 22 $9 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July? Jun 22 $1 $0 -15%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jun 21 $11 $0 -1%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem May 10 $24 $0 -0%
Will egg prices be less than $4.75 in April? May 10 $4 −$1 -16%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will Anders Arborelius be the next pope? May 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 09 $8 $0 +0%
Will Finland qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 09 $3 $0 -5%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? May 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $95000 and $97000 on May 9? May 09 $11 $0 +1%
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 07 $11 $0 +1%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? May 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon CZ in his first 100 days? May 06 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? May 06 $10 $0 +3%
Will Eric Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? Apr 15 $13 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Apr 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 13 $13 $0 -1%
Will Patrick Cantlay win The 2025 Masters? Apr 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will Susan Crawford win by 8-10%? Apr 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will Randy Fine win by 15-20%? Apr 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 06 $13 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days? Apr 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Mar 31 $13 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $1.70 in March? Mar 28 $13 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $31 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $31 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes $7 44h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes $3 45h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes $4 45h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $31 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $31 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $6 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $31 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $5 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $9 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $18 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 5d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $18 5d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $7 5d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 62¢ $32 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $8 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $24 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $3 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.00 (match) · 204 history records