Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:59:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2e22…29dc world 36 markets active 3h ago coverage 266d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate22%8W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$4
politics 21% −$1
sports 8% $0
other 7% $0
tech 7% $0
culture 6% $0
crypto 4% $0
economics 1% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.1% -8.6% 22% 11% -10.2%
≤30d 10 +0.6% -9.0% 20% 10% -10.6%
≤90d 10 +0.6% -9.0% 20% 10% -10.6%
all 36 -0.1% -9.6% 22% 3% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 3% -10.1%
10% -18.3% 3% -18.7%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.6%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 94% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

266d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses8 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage266d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $45 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +25%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $8 −$1 -10%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $39 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $32 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $84 −$3 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $42 +$1 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $48 −$2 -4%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $53 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 06 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Oct 05 $24 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Oct 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 04 $25 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 02 $9 −$1 -7%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 02 $19 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 02 $22 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 02 $46 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Oct 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Oct 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Oct 01 $24 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 30 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 30 $2 $0 -3%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 29 $25 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 28 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 27 $8 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by September 30? Sep 27 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Sep 27 $6 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 27 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 59°F or below on September 2 Sep 27 $6 $0 -0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 26 $3 $0 +1%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 26 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $45 2h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $45 2h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 10h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 12h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $7 16h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 17h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $10 23h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $30 23h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $10 26h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $30 26h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $39 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 73¢ $39 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $26 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $26 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $44 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 58¢ $46 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $36 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $30 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $7 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 78¢ $37 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 78¢ $6 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 77¢ $42 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 142 history records