Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:38:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2e22…1248 weather 210 markets active 1h ago coverage 527d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$165 (-4%) realized −$165 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate49%103W / 106L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 37% $0
other 22% −$3
politics 18% −$145
crypto 13% −$5
sports 4% −$13
tech 3% $0
world 2% $0
culture 2% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -0.0% -9.6% 36% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 77 -0.0% -9.5% 45% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 164 -1.2% -10.6% 45% 0% -14.8%
all 209 -4.0% -13.2% 49% 0% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 0% -13.6%
10% -21.5% 0% -21.9%
15% -29.1% 0% -29.4%
20% -36.0% 0% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

527d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$165
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses103 / 106
Open positions1
Markets (closed)209 / 210
History coverage527d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 209 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 29°C or below on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 27? Jun 27 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 41°C on June 27? Jun 26 $21 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or below on June 27? Jun 26 $12 $0 -0%
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $6 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 26? Jun 26 $21 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 26? Jun 26 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 46°C on June 26? Jun 26 $21 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 27? Jun 26 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 26? Jun 26 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 26? Jun 26 $19 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C or higher on June 25 Jun 25 $16 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 26°C or below on June 26? Jun 25 $8 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 38°C on June 25? Jun 25 $8 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $9 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C or below on June 25? Jun 25 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C or higher on June 25? Jun 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 60-61°F on June Jun 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on June 24? Jun 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 44°C on June 24? Jun 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 24? Jun 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will Derek Tran advance from the CA-45 primary election? Jun 10 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 8°C on June 9? Jun 08 $9 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $73,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Kim Dong-yeon win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi Jun 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Arthur Dixon advance from the CA-34 primary election? Jun 04 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 3? Jun 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 3? Jun 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C on June 3? Jun 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on June 3? Jun 03 $8 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 3? Jun 03 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on June 3? Jun 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 3? Jun 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on Ju Jun 03 $22 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Democratic Party of Korea win 0 or 1 seats in South Korea’s J Jun 02 $6 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $1.40 on June 2? Jun 02 $16 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or below on June 2? Jun 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 3? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 2? Jun 02 $7 $0 -0%
Will Estêvão be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad lis Jun 02 $43 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C or higher on June 2 Jun 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Julie Stauch win the 2026 Iowa Governor Democratic primary electi Jun 01 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index dip to 25 by May 31? Jun 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Cole Palmer be included in England's official 2026 World Cup squa Jun 01 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on June 1? Jun 01 $9 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 29°C or below on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $28 32m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 29°C or below on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $28 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $13 3h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 29°C or below on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $29 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $14 7h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 41°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $13 8h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 41°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $8 8h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or below on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $12 9h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 41°C on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $21 10h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or below on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $12 11h
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 11h
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 14h
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $7 16h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 26? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 17h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 19h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 20h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $8 22h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $9 23h
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7 23h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 46°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 46°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $8 23h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 46°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $5 24h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $10 24h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $13 24h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 46°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $6 24h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $19 24h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $10 25h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $13 31h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $17 33h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 46°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $21 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.71 · official $27.71 (match) · 466 history records