Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T15:47:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2e22…e18a crypto 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$136 (-4%) realized −$136 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%8W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$171per market
Trades / day43.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$799
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-35.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -28.8% -35.5% 42% 42% -32.2%
≤30d 19 -28.8% -35.5% 42% 42% -32.2%
≤90d 19 -28.8% -35.5% 42% 42% -32.2%
all 19 -28.8% -35.5% 42% 42% -32.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.5% 42% -32.2%
10% ← realistic here -41.7% 42% -38.7%
15% -47.3% 42% -44.6%
20% -52.5% 32% -50.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$137 vs −$172 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$136
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses8 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage1d
Avg bet$171
Trades / day43.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 22 $104 +$87 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 22 $104 +$90 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 22 $1,035 +$886 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 22 $1,031 −$1,000 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 22 $516 −$500 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 22 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 22 $108 −$106 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 22 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 22 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 22 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$1 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 22 $21 +$15 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 22 $2 +$1 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$6 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $190 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $193 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $401 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $908 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $612 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1,035 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1,031 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $516 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $207 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $47 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $36 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $10 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 48 history records