trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 4 | +140.8% | +117.9% | 50% | 50% | -3.5% |
| ≤90d | 4 | +140.8% | +117.9% | 50% | 50% | -3.5% |
| all | 22 | +27.1% | +15.0% | 36% | 14% | -8.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +15.0% | 14% | -8.8% |
| 10% | +4.0% | 14% | -17.5% |
| 15% | -6.0% | 14% | -25.5% |
| 20% | -15.3% | 5% | -32.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Yes | 49¢ | 52¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+7%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | Jun 17 | $41 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | May 26 | $1 | $0 | -42% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | May 26 | $1 | $0 | +38% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 24 | $36 | +$3 | +8% |
| Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 11 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Jun 27 | $1 | $0 | +6% |
| Will Brad Lander’s vote share be greater than 15% in the first round o | Jun 23 | $14 | −$2 | -16% |
| Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? | Jun 23 | $15 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Amazon buy TikTok? | Jun 19 | $16 | +$1 | +6% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1500 on May 9? | May 10 | $1 | $0 | +38% |
| Will Sweden qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? | May 09 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? | May 08 | $16 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? | May 07 | $15 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Susan Crawford win by 8-10%? | May 07 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? | May 07 | $15 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in May? | May 06 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the next Pope be from South America? | May 06 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele | May 06 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting? | May 06 | $3 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? | May 05 | $15 | $0 | -1% |
| Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? | May 05 | $17 | $0 | +2% |
| North Carolina vs. Virginia Tech | Mar 03 | $17 | $0 | +0% |