Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:01:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2E 0x2e1e…9961 other 51 markets active 9h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,281 (-13%) realized −$1,072 · open −$209
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate49%19W / 20L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$198per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$1,151now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$798
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 42% −$1,616
world 24% +$400
other 22% +$769
economics 10% −$1,000
sports 2% +$122
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +37.0% +24.0% 56% 56% -4.0%
≤30d 21 +6.3% -3.8% 52% 43% +77.6%
≤90d 28 +4.6% -5.4% 54% 46% +25.7%
all 39 -12.3% -20.6% 49% 38% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.6% 38% -21.3%
10% -28.2% 33% -28.8%
15% -35.1% 31% -35.7%
20% -41.5% 21% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +39% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -37% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$110 vs −$160 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$1,151
Realized−$1,072
Unrealized−$209
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses19 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions12
Markets (closed)39 / 51
History coverage100d
Avg bet$198
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $500 $554 +$54 (+11%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $200 $204 +$4 (+2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $150 $148 −$2 (-1%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $100 $85 −$15 (-15%)
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 34¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 43¢ 40¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 32¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 46¢ 40¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 62¢ 1¢ $250 $2 −$248 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$41 -82%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$25 +250%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$28 +276%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$8 +42%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 01 $4 −$4 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 01 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 01 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 01 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 01 $21 −$16 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 01 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 31 $108 $0 +0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $102 +$92 +90%
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $409 +$750 +183%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Draw at halftime? May 30 $10 −$10 -97%
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Apr 18 $500 +$55 +11%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? Apr 07 $150 −$11 -8%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 05 $200 +$107 +54%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? Apr 01 $89 −$14 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Mar 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Mar 24 $1,000 +$214 +21%
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? Mar 24 $1,000 +$326 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Mar 11 $531 −$531 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Mar 10 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Mar 10 $500 −$493 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Mar 10 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Mar 10 $500 +$231 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Mar 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Mar 10 $500 +$189 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Mar 10 $500 +$38 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Mar 08 $200 +$4 +2%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 08 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Mar 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $154 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 9h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 17¢ $9 25h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $50 27h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $155 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 3d
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $154 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 5d
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 9d
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $202 9d
Will Germany reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 9d
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 9d
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 9d
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 9d
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 9d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $514 9d
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $4 15d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $10 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $10 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $4 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,151.26 · official $1,151.26 (match) · 98 history records