Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:22:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

2E 0x2e1c…4db8 crypto 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$1,209 (+20%) realized +$1,209 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +85% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +43% what you keep after slip

Net edge+43%after slip

Net WR44%break-even

Win rate61%11W / 7L

Whale WR100%big bets

Drawdown52%max

Avg bet$340per market

Trades / day36.2pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit94%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +44%

net ROI/market (all)+67.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	18	+85.3%	+67.6%	61%	44%	-0.3%
≤30d	18	+85.3%	+67.6%	61%	44%	-0.3%
≤90d	18	+85.3%	+67.6%	61%	44%	-0.3%
all	18	+85.3%	+67.6%	61%	44%	-0.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover36.2 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+67.6%	44%	-0.3%
10% ← realistic here	+51.6%	33%	-9.8%
15%	+36.9%	17%	-18.5%
20%	+23.5%	11%	-26.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 46% · top 2 62% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

27% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +85% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 100% (≥$616) strong on big bets

Persistence

early +188% → late -17% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$205 vs −$160 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×2.01 per $1 lost it wins $2.01

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$1,209

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)61%

Wins / losses11 / 7

Whale WR (big bets)100%

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions0

Markets (closed)18 / 18

History coverage2d

Avg bet$340

Trades / day36.2

Drawdown52%

Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 18 Trades

no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Jun 24	$1,012	+$203	+20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Jun 24	$228	−$225	-99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Jun 24	$915	+$266	+29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Jun 24	$616	+$359	+58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Jun 24	$413	−$400	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Jun 24	$205	−$200	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Jun 24	$703	+$36	+5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Jun 24	$35	+$8	+22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Jun 24	$907	+$109	+12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Jun 24	$97	−$91	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Jun 24	$408	+$180	+44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Jun 24	$104	−$100	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Jun 24	$104	−$100	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Jun 24	$5	−$5	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Jun 24	$27	+$1,046	+3918%
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 0.5	Jun 24	$111	+$27	+24%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic	Jun 23	$119	+$11	+10%
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$121	+$12	+10%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	BUY Down	88¢	$101	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	BUY Down	89¢	$101	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	BUY Down	88¢	$101	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	BUY Down	88¢	$101	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	BUY Down	88¢	$101	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	BUY Down	76¢	$102	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	BUY Down	82¢	$101	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	BUY Down	76¢	$102	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	BUY Down	76¢	$102	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	BUY Down	76¢	$102	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	BUY Up	85¢	$101	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	BUY Up	83¢	$101	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	BUY Up	82¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	BUY Up	82¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	BUY Up	81¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	BUY Up	81¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	BUY Up	79¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	BUY Up	88¢	$101	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	BUY Up	91¢	$101	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	BUY Up	70¢	$102	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	BUY Up	70¢	$102	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	BUY Up	75¢	$102	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	BUY Up	73¢	$102	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	BUY Up	73¢	$102	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	BUY Up	76¢	$102	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	BUY Up	76¢	$102	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	BUY Down	65¢	$102	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	BUY Down	63¢	$103	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	BUY Down	65¢	$102	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	BUY Down	62¢	$103	2h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 83 history records