Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:39:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
2E 0x2e18…bf31 crypto 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$92 (+13%) realized +$91 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$138per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% +$159
sports 41% +$93
other 12% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+26.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +40.2% +26.8% 50% 50% +27.9%
≤30d 4 +40.2% +26.8% 50% 50% +27.9%
≤90d 4 +40.2% +26.8% 50% 50% +27.9%
all 4 +40.2% +26.8% 50% 50% +27.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +26.8% 50% +27.9%
10% +14.7% 50% +15.7%
15% +3.6% 50% +4.5%
20% -6.5% 25% -5.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +41% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +40% · $-wt +41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$210 vs −$85 · ×2.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.46 per $1 lost it wins $2.46
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized+$91
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage2d
Avg bet$138
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 52¢ 52¢ $80 $81 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $150 +$327 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $178 −$168 -94%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $81 −$2 -3%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $202 +$92 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $150 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $178 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $52 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $3 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $14 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $12 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 76¢ $78 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $81 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 68¢ $202 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.85 · official $80.85 (match) · 11 history records