Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:15:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
2E 0x2e18…ae63 other 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 224d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,363 (+9%) realized +$2,430 · open −$67
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate59%24W / 17L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$545per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$1,681now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$25
14 days−$143
30 days−$338
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$2,901
world 16% +$463
crypto 15% −$372
sports 10% −$136
politics 7% +$120
tech 3% −$752
finance 0% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +15.2% +4.3% 100% 50% -5.1%
≤30d 7 -1.7% -11.0% 71% 57% -16.0%
≤90d 17 +2.1% -7.6% 59% 47% -6.8%
all 41 -9.8% -18.4% 59% 41% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 41% -0.7%
10% -26.2% 34% -10.2%
15% -33.4% 27% -18.9%
20% -39.9% 17% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$752) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$219 vs −$173 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.79 per $1 lost it wins $1.79
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$1,681
Realized+$2,430
Unrealized−$67
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses24 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions6
Markets (closed)41 / 47
History coverage224d
Avg bet$545
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 62¢ 52¢ $744 $630 −$114 (-15%)
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 53¢ 68¢ $265 $340 +$75 (+28%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 75¢ 74¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 71¢ 70¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Yes 55¢ 79¢ $53 $77 +$24 (+44%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $85 $38 −$47 (-55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $455 +$9 +2%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $205 +$16 +8%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 06 $168 −$168 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $3,325 −$364 -11%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $226 +$24 +11%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $207 +$67 +32%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea May 26 $302 +$78 +26%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $192 −$190 -99%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 14 $1,725 +$775 +45%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 17 $230 −$226 -98%
Will Vitality win Blast Open Rotterdam 2026? Apr 10 $198 +$102 +52%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 26 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 22, 2026? Mar 23 $1,000 +$26 +3%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Mar 22 $684 −$540 -79%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Mar 22 $196 +$686 +350%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 22 $202 −$202 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 21 $323 +$248 +77%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Jan 31 $960 +$22 +2%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 mil Jan 14 $1,569 +$78 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down on January 8? Jan 08 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 2? Jan 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 1? Jan 01 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $279 +$21 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $270 +$130 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down on December 30? Dec 30 $100 −$66 -66%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Dec 30 $150 +$100 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 24? Dec 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Nov 23 $405 +$157 +39%
Will the Monad public sale commitments be less than $400M? Nov 23 $178 +$22 +12%
Over $600M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 23 $852 +$348 +41%
Over $1B committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 23 $1,490 +$142 +10%
Over $800M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 23 $1,448 +$314 +22%
Over $250M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 22 $138 −$138 -100%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$5B one day after launch? Nov 22 $518 +$289 +56%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025? Nov 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will 风无向 Web3Feng win the Synthetix trading competition? Nov 16 $540 −$66 -12%
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Nov 14 $752 −$752 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end by November 30? Nov 13 $1,880 +$120 +6%
Canton FDV above $5B one day after launch? Nov 11 $500 +$330 +66%
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 10 $1,953 +$1,147 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 71¢ $303 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 75¢ $302 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY Yes 55¢ $19 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY Yes 55¢ $0 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY Yes 55¢ $32 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 62¢ $642 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 62¢ $6 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 62¢ $97 3d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 93¢ $464 4d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 24¢ $1 6d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 24¢ $0 6d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 52¢ $214 6d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 35¢ $204 6d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 13d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 13d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 13d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $26 13d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $19 13d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $13 13d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $13 13d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 13d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $18 13d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 13d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $13 13d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $25 13d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 14d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 14d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 14d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $12 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,680.83 · official $1,680.83 (match) · 242 history records