Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:40:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2e17…b9ec other 118 markets active 2h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$38 (-0%) realized −$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate9%11W / 106L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$222per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$27
politics 30% −$11
sports 10% −$1
crypto 4% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 2% −$1
world 2% −$1
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 15 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 81 -0.1% -9.6% 1% 0% -9.6%
all 117 -3.2% -12.4% 9% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 4% -9.7%
10% -20.8% 2% -18.3%
15% -28.5% 1% -26.2%
20% -35.5% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×5.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses11 / 106
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)117 / 118
History coverage133d
Avg bet$222
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 21 $18 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $27 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $34 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 19 $25 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $22 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $183 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $378 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $181 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $227 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $359 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $778 −$1 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $212 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $375 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 22 $220 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $209 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 21 $195 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $207 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $220 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $173 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $750 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $219 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 17 $227 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 14 $184 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $225 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $179 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $177 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $189 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $202 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 10 $204 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $158 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $418 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $188 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $228 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $159 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $414 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $563 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $185 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $196 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 16 $187 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $169 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $199 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $538 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $928 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $472 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $213 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $165 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $221 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $186 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $237 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $641 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 1h
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $18 1h
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 3h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 3h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 24h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $34 24h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $34 43h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $25 43h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $25 7d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $22 21d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 21d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $183 22d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $183 24d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $206 24d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $206 24d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $181 24d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $181 24d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $227 26d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $227 26d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $183 27d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $183 27d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $158 27d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $158 28d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $212 28d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $212 28d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $187 28d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $187 29d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $219 29d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $220 29d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $209 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.99 · official $28.99 (match) · 344 history records