Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:30:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2E 0x2e13…feb7 politics 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 185d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$170 (+5%) realized +$185 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate65%20W / 11L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$608now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$97
7 days+$97
14 days+$97
30 days+$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 38% −$65
finance 16% +$33
other 12% +$1
sports 8% −$12
culture 7% +$63
tech 5% +$36
crypto 5% $0
economics 5% +$37
world 4% +$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +48.2% +34.1% 100% 100% +31.5%
≤30d 3 +22.2% +10.6% 67% 67% +1.8%
≤90d 12 +6.3% -3.9% 67% 33% -2.7%
all 31 +8.5% -1.9% 65% 16% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.9% 16% -4.1%
10% -11.3% 13% -13.2%
15% -19.8% 10% -21.6%
20% -27.7% 6% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$6 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.37 per $1 lost it wins $3.37
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

185d coverage
Net worth$608
Realized+$185
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses20 / 11
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)31 / 36
History coverage185d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 94¢ 91¢ $234 $226 −$8 (-3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 94¢ $113 $113 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? No 75¢ 74¢ $112 $112 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 87¢ $88 $87 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 25¢ 23¢ $76 $70 −$6 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 20 $64 +$36 +56%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $149 +$61 +41%
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $165 −$49 -30%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $190 −$3 -2%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 17 $101 +$1 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 17 $195 +$1 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 17 $71 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 17 $21 −$6 -28%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $134 +$3 +2%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 09 $172 −$12 -7%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Apr 07 $263 +$37 +14%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 26 $237 +$63 +27%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 10 $95 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 10 $20 +$38 +188%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Jan 23 $13 −$1 -6%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 19 $88 $0 +0%
Will José Cardoso win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 07 $120 $0 -0%
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31? Jan 07 $3 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk be the next CEO of X? Jan 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025? Jan 07 $5 $0 +3%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 07 $10 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will no CEO be announced in 2025? Jan 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of December 2025? Jan 07 $24 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 07 $60 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 07 $80 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of December 2025? Jan 07 $88 $0 +0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Dec 31 $60 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Dec 31 $80 $0 -0%
Will Jorge Pinto win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Dec 31 $100 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? Dec 31 $140 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $88 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $113 1h
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 75¢ $114 2h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 25¢ $78 14d
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 15¢ $116 25d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 64¢ $46 27d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 64¢ $19 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $149 30d
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $188 30d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $235 34d
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 95¢ $190 34d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $102 34d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? SELL No 98¢ $196 34d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? SELL No 89¢ $71 34d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? SELL Yes 20¢ $15 34d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $101 38d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? BUY Yes 26¢ $21 38d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? BUY No 88¢ $71 38d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? BUY No 97¢ $195 38d
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 20¢ $165 38d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 63¢ $137 38d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 61¢ $3 72d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 61¢ $18 72d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 61¢ $113 72d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 70¢ $161 72d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 75¢ $172 74d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? BUY Yes 88¢ $131 96d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? BUY Yes 88¢ $106 96d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? BUY Yes 88¢ $18 97d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? BUY Yes 88¢ $9 97d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $608.18 · official $608.18 (match) · 165 history records