Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:10:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2e11…384f other 60 markets active 2h ago coverage 258d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$27 (-3%) realized −$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate34%20W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$9
world 28% −$1
sports 8% −$17
politics 8% $0
crypto 6% $0
culture 4% +$1
tech 3% $0
finance 3% $0
economics 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +5.7% -4.4% 50% 50% -10.3%
≤30d 9 +1.2% -8.5% 33% 11% -9.8%
≤90d 9 +1.2% -8.5% 33% 11% -9.8%
all 59 -4.5% -13.6% 34% 5% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 5% -12.0%
10% -21.9% 2% -20.4%
15% -29.4% 2% -28.1%
20% -36.3% 0% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

258d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses20 / 39
Open positions1
Markets (closed)59 / 60
History coverage258d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $46 −$1 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $1 $0 +12%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 07 $46 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $80 −$1 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $53 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $20 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $15 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $13 $0 -2%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Jan 31 $17 −$6 -34%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 15 $5 −$2 -32%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $17 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $11 $0 +0%
Buccaneers vs. Rams Nov 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Nov 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-22? Nov 24 $3 +$1 +40%
Will Osasuna win on 2025-11-22? Nov 24 $13 −$6 -46%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 20 $18 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 20 $15 $0 -3%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $33 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $27 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-11-22? Nov 18 $24 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Nov 18 $1 $0 -29%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-22? Nov 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Nov 15 $4 $0 +10%
TikTok sale announced by October 31? Nov 14 $3 $0 -2%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Nov 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CTBC Flying Oyster win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 24 $21 $0 +0%
Will Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere win Best Picture at the 98th Oct 24 $21 $0 +0%
Will Taylor Swift be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Oct 23 $21 $0 -0%
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration in 2025? Oct 23 $26 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 22 $12 $0 +1%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will G2 Esports win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 21 $13 $0 +3%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 21 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 20 $2 $0 +14%
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair? Oct 20 $15 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Oct 20 $27 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 19 $19 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes in 2025? Oct 19 $7 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $48 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $51 2h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $22 17h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $24 17h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $1 21h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $46 21h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 27h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 29h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 54¢ $46 11d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 54¢ $2 11d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 54¢ $35 11d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 54¢ $10 11d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $6 11d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $40 11d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 72¢ $47 12d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 13d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $31 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $33 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 13d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $7 13d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $18 19d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $2 19d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $20 19d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $46 20d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $46 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.92 · official $2.92 (match) · 263 history records