Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T18:16:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2E
0x2e11…834c
sports · 75 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$480 -14%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$466 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$153
Realized−$466
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses44 / 30
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)74 / 75
History coverage137d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 1 History 74 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$69
7 days−$284
14 days−$284
30 days−$284
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Over 94¢ 92¢ $155 $153 −$2 (-2%)
US government shutdown Saturday? No 62¢ 0¢ $116 $0 −$116 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $198 $0 −$198 (-100%)
Girona FC vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5 Over 56¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Girona FC vs. RCD Mallorca: Both Teams to Score Yes 55¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Over 45¢ 0¢ $133 $0 −$133 (-100%)
Girona FC vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 1.5 Over 76¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $252 +$2 +1%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $100 +$5 +5%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $100 −$89 -89%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $235 +$12 +5%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $2 +$2 +93%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $2 +$1 +44%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $87 −$82 -95%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $134 −$133 -99%
Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5 May 09 $23 −$23 -99%
Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 1.5 May 07 $19 +$4 +21%
Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to Score May 07 $15 −$15 -98%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score May 06 $26 +$8 +31%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 05 $151 −$139 -93%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $36 −$30 -84%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 1.5 May 05 $35 −$25 -72%
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score May 05 $10 +$8 +79%
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 May 05 $10 +$7 +65%
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5 May 04 $101 +$21 +21%
Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to Score May 04 $10 +$9 +86%
Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5 May 04 $37 +$6 +17%
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 1.5 May 03 $46 +$11 +23%
Aston Villa FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Both Teams to Score May 03 $17 +$11 +62%
Aston Villa FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5 May 03 $17 +$13 +73%
Juventus FC vs. Hellas Verona FC: O/U 1.5 May 03 $50 +$5 +11%
Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5 May 03 $15 +$9 +57%
Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score May 03 $15 +$8 +52%
Leeds United FC vs. Burnley FC: Both Teams to Score May 02 $10 +$11 +105%
Leeds United FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 2.5 May 01 $10 +$8 +76%
Leeds United FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 1.5 May 01 $15 +$4 +24%
Girona FC vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 2.5 May 01 $10 −$10 -99%
Girona FC vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 1.5 May 01 $15 −$15 -99%
Girona FC vs. RCD Mallorca: Both Teams to Score May 01 $10 −$10 -99%
SC Braga vs. SC Freiburg: Both Teams to Score Apr 30 $20 +$21 +101%
SC Braga vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 1.5 Apr 30 $20 +$9 +46%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 30 $12 +$12 +101%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 30 $20 +$25 +124%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $20 −$20 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Feb 03 $201 −$198 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Feb 03 $8 −$8 -100%
Sunderland AFC vs. Burnley FC: Both Teams to Score Feb 03 $10 −$10 -100%
RCD Mallorca vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 1.5 Feb 03 $15 +$7 +45%
RCD Mallorca vs. Sevilla FC: Both Teams to Score Feb 03 $15 +$15 +100%
Sunderland AFC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 1.5 Feb 02 $100 +$43 +43%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-01? Feb 02 $100 +$54 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 30, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Feb 01 $100 −$100 -100%
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. FC Internazionale Milano: Both Teams to Sc Feb 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 30, 6PM ET Feb 01 $100 −$100 -100%
AS Monaco FC vs. Juventus FC: Both Teams to Score Feb 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 2.5 Feb 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 64% −$233
crypto 21% −$188
politics 8% −$63
other 6% +$15
world 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 94¢ $155 8m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $255 14m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $252 1h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 10¢ $11 15h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $100 16h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $100 17h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $247 22h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $235 22h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $2 2d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $2 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 2¢ $4 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Over 45¢ $46 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Over 45¢ $88 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $87 3d
Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $23 36d
Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $19 37d
Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $15 37d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 76¢ $26 39d
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 4¢ $11 39d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? SELL No 6¢ $6 39d
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 22¢ $10 39d
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $35 40d
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $151 40d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? BUY No 39¢ $36 40d
Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 86¢ $6 41d
Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 86¢ $16 41d
Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 86¢ $6 41d
Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 86¢ $9 41d
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $101 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -26.2% -33.2% 56% 22% -37.6%
≤30d 9 -26.2% -33.2% 56% 22% -37.6%
≤90d 38 +2.4% -7.4% 66% 58% -28.8%
all 74 -0.6% -10.0% 59% 53% -23.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 53% -23.2%
10% -18.6% 46% -30.6%
15% -26.5% 42% -37.3%
20% -33.7% 36% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $152.62 · official $152.62 (match) · 185 history records