Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:17:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

2E 0x2e0e…1cb9 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL −$3 (-15%) realized −$3 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +60% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +33% what you keep after slip

Net edge+33%after slip

Net WR75%break-even

Win rate75%3W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$5per market

Trades / day9.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +75%

net ROI/market (all)+44.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+59.6%	+44.4%	75%	75%	-11.2%
≤30d	4	+59.6%	+44.4%	75%	75%	-11.2%
≤90d	4	+59.6%	+44.4%	75%	75%	-11.2%
all	4	+59.6%	+44.4%	75%	75%	-11.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover9.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+44.4%	75%	-11.2%
10%	+30.6%	75%	-19.7%
15%	+18.0%	75%	-27.5%
20%	+6.4%	75%	-34.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 41% · top 2 73% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -2% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +60% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$3 vs −$10 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.96 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$3

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)75%

Wins / losses3 / 1

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions0

Markets (closed)4 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$5

Trades / day9.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 4 Trades

no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$5	+$3	+61%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score	Jun 15	$3	+$3	+84%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$2	+$4	+194%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	82¢	$8	46m
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	50¢	$5	1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	19¢	$2	21h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	29¢	$3	21h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	25¢	$5	22h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	68¢	$6	22h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	40¢	$6	22h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	13¢	$2	23h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	36¢	$3	23h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 9 history records