Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:34:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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2E 0x2e09…4d9c crypto 638 markets active 0h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$537 (-4%) realized −$446 · open −$91
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate90%568W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$69
7 days+$69
14 days+$69
30 days+$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$588
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +4.5% -5.5% 100% 7% -4.8%
≤30d 28 +4.5% -5.5% 100% 7% -4.8%
≤90d 28 +4.5% -5.5% 100% 7% -4.8%
all 633 -0.8% -10.2% 90% 9% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 9% -12.7%
10% -18.8% 5% -21.0%
15% -26.7% 3% -28.7%
20% -33.8% 2% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$14 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$446
Unrealized−$91
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses568 / 65
Open positions5
Markets (closed)633 / 638
History coverage126d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 633 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Down 89¢ 50¢ $50 $28 −$22 (-45%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Down 96¢ 50¢ $50 $26 −$24 (-49%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Up 99¢ 50¢ $25 $13 −$12 (-49%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Up 90¢ 50¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-45%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 21 $51 +$27 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 21 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 21 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 21 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 21 $85 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 21 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 21 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 21 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 21 $75 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 21 $55 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 21 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 21 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 21 $75 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 21 $101 +$16 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 21 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 21 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 21 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 21 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 21 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 21 $55 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 21 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Feb 23 $104 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Feb 23 $103 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Feb 23 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Feb 23 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Feb 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Feb 22 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Feb 22 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Feb 22 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Feb 22 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Feb 22 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Feb 22 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Feb 22 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Feb 22 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Feb 22 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Feb 22 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Feb 22 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Feb 22 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Feb 22 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Feb 22 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Feb 22 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Feb 22 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Feb 22 $20 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $25 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $25 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $25 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.09 · official $69.20 (match) · 2567 history records