Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:38:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2e08…2e43 sports 59 markets active 4d ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate61%36W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$22
14 days−$79
30 days−$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$85
world 12% −$14
other 2% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +6.3% -3.8% 67% 67% -25.7%
≤30d 59 -9.2% -17.8% 61% 44% -16.5%
≤90d 59 -9.2% -17.8% 61% 44% -16.5%
all 59 -9.2% -17.8% 61% 44% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 44% -16.5%
10% -25.7% 31% -24.5%
15% -32.9% 14% -31.8%
20% -39.4% 7% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$9 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses36 / 23
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)59 / 59
History coverage17d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 59 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 13 $21 −$20 -95%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $21 −$20 -96%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +89%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $21 +$3 +14%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$9 +172%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $11 −$10 -95%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 12 $21 +$5 +24%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 11 $11 +$3 +24%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $11 +$4 +34%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $52 −$17 -33%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 10 $21 +$5 +26%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 10 $10 +$3 +27%
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky Jun 10 $32 −$5 -15%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $42 +$5 +13%
Indiana Fever vs. Washington Mystics Jun 09 $5 −$5 -87%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $31 +$5 +16%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 07 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty Jun 07 $10 −$9 -82%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Sorana Cirstea vs Xiyu Wang Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $15 −$5 -30%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $21 +$1 +6%
Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire Jun 06 $5 +$2 +39%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $26 +$6 +21%
Connecticut Sun vs. Chicago Sky Jun 06 $26 +$3 +10%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions Jun 05 $43 +$1 +2%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 05 $31 −$4 -13%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $34 +$12 +36%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $43 −$8 -20%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 04 $10 +$2 +22%
Toronto Tempo vs. New York Liberty Jun 04 $10 +$2 +17%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 03 $21 +$2 +9%
Chicago Sky vs. Washington Mystics Jun 03 $21 +$2 +10%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks Jun 02 $5 −$4 -73%
Game Handicap: LGD (-2.5) vs ThunderTalk Gaming (+2.5) Jun 02 $11 −$4 -36%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 02 $11 +$6 +61%
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 01 $52 −$13 -24%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $52 −$14 -27%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks May 31 $31 +$8 +24%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek May 31 $5 +$3 +48%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $4 +$3 +73%
Indiana Fever vs. PortlandFire May 31 $8 +$1 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 30 $62 $0 +0%
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $5 +$2 +37%
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 +$2 +22%
Roland Garros WTA: Maria Sakkari vs Maja Chwalinska May 30 $19 −$3 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Minnesota Lynx 43¢ $21 4d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 81¢ $21 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 4d
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics SELL Washington Mystics 98¢ $24 4d
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 79¢ $21 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $14 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $11 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 5d
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream SELL New York Liberty 100¢ $26 5d
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream BUY New York Liberty 74¢ $21 5d
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo SELL Toronto Tempo 90¢ $13 6d
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Toronto Tempo 66¢ $11 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 70¢ $14 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $11 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 65¢ $21 7d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 76¢ $21 7d
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx SELL Minnesota Lynx 100¢ $13 7d
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky SELL Atlanta Dream 99¢ $24 7d
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky SELL Chicago Sky $2 7d
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky BUY Chicago Sky 32¢ $11 7d
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY Minnesota Lynx 72¢ $10 7d
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky BUY Atlanta Dream 78¢ $21 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 99¢ $37 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 20¢ $5 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 86¢ $21 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 19¢ $5 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 64¢ $11 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 47¢ $6 8d
Indiana Fever vs. Washington Mystics SELL Indiana Fever 10¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 168 history records