Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:03:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2e04…45b4 politics 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 222d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$9 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%5W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 54% −$5
sports 23% −$2
crypto 6% $0
other 5% −$1
economics 5% −$1
world 5% $0
culture 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 5 -3.9% -13.0% 40% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 5 -3.9% -13.0% 40% 0% -9.6%
all 50 -8.1% -16.9% 10% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 0% -9.8%
10% -24.8% 0% -18.4%
15% -32.1% 0% -26.3%
20% -38.8% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

222d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized−$9
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses5 / 45
Open positions3
Markets (closed)50 / 53
History coverage222d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $71 $71 −$0 (-0%)
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $72 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $70 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $72 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $2 $0 -19%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 03 $75 $0 +0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 05 $154 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 28 $75 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 16? Feb 21 $74 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 12 $74 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $74 $0 +0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 28 $75 −$1 -1%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 28 $74 $0 -1%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 26 $74 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 25 $1 $0 -46%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 25 $77 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 22 $76 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 20 $164 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 19 $77 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 17? Jan 18 $72 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Jan 16 $1 $0 -8%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 15 $159 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 13 $76 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 12 $2 $0 -12%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 12 $75 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 10 $154 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 09 $1 $0 -20%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 09 $78 $0 +0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 08 $1 $0 -20%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 07 $77 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 06 $83 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 06 $78 $0 -0%
Will Fulham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 04 $79 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 26 $80 $0 -0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 20 $81 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 13 $79 $0 -0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 07 $82 $0 -1%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 05 $78 $0 -0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 01 $76 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 30 $5 $0 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Nov 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 29 $77 $0 -0%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 29 $1 $0 -50%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 28 $1 $0 -33%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 23 $83 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 21 $81 $0 -0%
Will Ed Sheeran be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Nov 20 $1 $0 -50%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Nov 13 $82 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 10 $82 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 10 $1 $0 -33%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 08 $83 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $71 2h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $1 36h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL Yes 1¢ $1 36h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $71 36h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $72 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $70 8d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL Yes 1¢ $1 9d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY Yes 1¢ $3 11d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $71 11d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $72 12d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 12d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 13d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 100¢ $75 15d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $73 103d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $73 107d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $75 109d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $75 114d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 114d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 16? BUY No 100¢ $74 120d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 120d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 122d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 124d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $74 124d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $74 126d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $74 136d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 140d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $73 140d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $73 140d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.24 · official $71.24 (match) · 209 history records