Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:38:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2e04…143d crypto 156 markets active 2h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$131 (+3%) realized +$109 · open +$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate83%116W / 24L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$1,492now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$167
7 days+$219
14 days+$220
30 days+$224
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% +$10
other 36% −$64
sports 14% +$336
world 2% −$29
tech 2% −$34
politics 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +15.5% +4.5% 75% 62% +16.2%
≤30d 20 +8.7% -1.7% 90% 30% +12.8%
≤90d 140 -3.1% -12.3% 83% 23% -3.1%
all 140 -3.1% -12.3% 83% 23% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 23% -3.1%
10% -20.7% 11% -12.4%
15% -28.4% 8% -20.8%
20% -35.4% 5% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$15 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$1,492
Realized+$109
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses116 / 24
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions16
Markets (closed)140 / 156
History coverage78d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $200 $250 +$50 (+25%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $100 $131 +$31 (+31%)
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 18¢ $100 $129 +$29 (+29%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $100 $115 +$15 (+15%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 28¢ $100 $115 +$15 (+15%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $100 $110 +$10 (+10%)
Will Harry Kane win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $100 $80 −$20 (-20%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $100 $76 −$24 (-24%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $100 $74 −$26 (-26%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $74 −$26 (-26%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Yes 45¢ 14¢ $50 $15 −$35 (-70%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 92¢ 98¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 +$82 +80%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$80 +79%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 +$5 +18%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $101 +$24 +24%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 $0 +0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $203 +$208 +103%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 −$80 -79%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $10 $0 +3%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $10 $0 +2%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $10 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 26? May 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid finish in the top 4 of the La Liga 2025–26 standi May 25 $10 $0 +1%
Will Harry Kane be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Bundesliga seaso May 25 $10 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? May 25 $10 $0 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 25 $10 $0 +3%
Will Michael Olise have the most assists during the 2025-26 Bundesliga May 25 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 25 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga seaso May 25 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by April 30, 2026? May 25 $10 +$1 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 5? May 04 $10 $0 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 5? May 04 $10 $0 -2%
Will Bradley Barcola be the top goal scorer in the 2025-26 Ligue 1 sea May 04 $10 $0 +4%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $10 −$9 -86%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Apr 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? Apr 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Apr 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Apr 28 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Apr 25 $41 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Apr 25 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Apr 25 $41 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Apr 25 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Apr 25 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Apr 25 $24 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Apr 25 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Apr 25 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 25 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 25 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Apr 24 $10 +$7 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Apr 24 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 24 $64 +$8 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 24 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Apr 24 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Apr 24 $10 −$6 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Apr 24 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 24 $20 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Apr 24 $10 +$1 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 54¢ $184 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 3h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $100 4h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 45¢ $51 31h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $182 46h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 55¢ $101 47h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 36¢ $34 47h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 36¢ $2 47h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 2d
Will Harry Kane win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 2d
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 77¢ $125 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $31 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $411 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 10¢ $21 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $102 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 5d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 7d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 7d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 7d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 7d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 7d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,491.77 · official $1,491.77 (match) · 347 history records