Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:06:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2e02…514b sports 20 markets active 5d ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$87 (-41%) realized −$87 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate65%13W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days+$0
30 days−$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$85
sports 36% $0
world 16% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.3% -8.3% 57% 0% -11.7%
≤30d 20 +4.7% -5.2% 65% 25% -48.3%
≤90d 20 +4.7% -5.2% 65% 25% -48.3%
all 20 +4.7% -5.2% 65% 25% -48.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 25% -48.3%
10% -14.3% 10% -53.2%
15% -22.6% 10% -57.8%
20% -30.2% 10% -61.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$16 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$87
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses13 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage18d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $5 $0 -3%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) Jun 11 $3 $0 +4%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $4 $0 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $34 −$2 -6%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $2 −$1 -48%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $5 −$3 -60%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 08 $7 $0 +4%
Ilkley: Veronika Podrez vs Tatiana Prozorova Jun 08 $13 +$1 +11%
Cattolica: Michele Ribecai vs Franco Agamenone Jun 08 $4 +$1 +20%
Modena: Xiyu Wang vs Laura Samson Jun 08 $7 +$1 +8%
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 08 $2 $0 +15%
Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-7.5) Jun 08 $3 −$1 -36%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 07 $2 +$1 +82%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $13 $0 +4%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $3 $0 +9%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $10 +$1 +12%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 25 $86 −$86 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) SELL Korea Republic 17¢ $1 5d
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 17¢ $1 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 53¢ $3 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 44¢ $2 5d
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz BUY Martin Landaluce 40¢ $2 5d
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz BUY Martin Landaluce 40¢ $0 5d
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 63¢ $3 5d
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) SELL Minnesota Twins 53¢ $3 6d
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) BUY Minnesota Twins 50¢ $3 6d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes 75¢ $4 6d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 70¢ $4 6d
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 68¢ $3 6d
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 28¢ $1 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 128 history records