trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 55¢ | 56¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+2%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | Jun 13 | $276 | −$3 | -1% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Jun 13 | $724 | +$13 | +2% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? | Jun 13 | $6 | $0 | +5% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? | Jun 13 | $128 | −$2 | -2% |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? | Jun 11 | $34 | −$21 | -63% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | -11.7% | -20.1% | 40% | 0% | -10.5% |
| ≤30d | 5 | -11.7% | -20.1% | 40% | 0% | -10.5% |
| ≤90d | 5 | -11.7% | -20.1% | 40% | 0% | -10.5% |
| all | 5 | -11.7% | -20.1% | 40% | 0% | -10.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -20.1% | 0% | -10.5% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -27.8% | 0% | -19.1% |
| 15% | -34.8% | 0% | -26.9% |
| 20% | -41.2% | 0% | -34.1% |