Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:38:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2df7…d863 world 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$2 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate43%16W / 21L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% $0
other 40% −$1
tech 3% +$1
sports 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +3.0% -6.8% 33% 11% -9.4%
≤30d 19 -4.0% -13.1% 32% 5% -9.5%
≤90d 19 -4.0% -13.1% 32% 5% -9.5%
all 37 -2.5% -11.8% 43% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 3% -9.4%
10% -20.2% 3% -18.1%
15% -27.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -35.0% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$2
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses16 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage470d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $47 $46 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $17 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $44 $0 -0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $35 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $13 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $44 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $49 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $44 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $2 $0 +27%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $43 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $17 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $4 $0 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $46 −$1 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $50 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $50 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $55 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $49 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $112 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $32 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $1 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? May 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? Apr 09 $16 $0 +2%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 08 $15 $0 -0%
Will Arsenal finish in the top 4 of the EPL? Apr 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will Rumble buy TikTok? Apr 06 $15 $0 +2%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 05 $1 $0 -10%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Apr 02 $3 −$1 -18%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 31 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Mar 30 $15 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 28 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28? Mar 24 $17 $0 -1%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? Mar 21 $16 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? Mar 20 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Vancouver Canucks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 20 $16 $0 +0%
Will Southampton win on 2025-03-08? Mar 11 $15 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $6 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $41 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $13 5h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $13 7h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $44 16h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $44 20h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $28 23h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $7 23h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $2 25h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $33 25h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 44h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 46h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $13 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $0 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $44 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $44 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $1 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $44 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $44 5d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 5d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $9 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $35 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $43 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $48 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $49 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $14 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.84 · official $46.71 (match) · 111 history records