Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:34:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

2D 0x2df7…66a7 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$14 (+12%) realized +$14 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip

Net edge+10%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate100%3W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$28per market

Trades / day8.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+14.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+26.6%	+14.6%	100%	67%	+10.7%
≤30d	3	+26.6%	+14.6%	100%	67%	+10.7%
≤90d	3	+26.6%	+14.6%	100%	67%	+10.7%
all	3	+26.6%	+14.6%	100%	67%	+10.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+14.6%	67%	+10.7%
10%	+3.6%	67%	+0.1%
15%	-6.4%	33%	-9.5%
20%	-15.6%	0%	-18.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 43% · top 2 84% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +22% too few recent

Fragile wins

33% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +27% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$8 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$3

Realized+$14

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses3 / 0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$28

Trades / day8.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	14¢	12¢	$3	$3	−$0 (-11%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$46	+$11	+23%
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$42	+$4	+10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$21	+$10	+48%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	14¢	$3	1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$57	1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	92¢	$30	2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	66¢	$16	2h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$46	2h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	91¢	$42	8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$31	8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	67¢	$21	10h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.68 · official $2.68 (match) · 8 history records