Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T03:54:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2df6…ef98 weather 1471 markets active 0h ago coverage 120d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 119d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized +$4 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate26%377W / 1056L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day18.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$53
7 days+$96
14 days+$9
30 days−$372
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 97% −$75
sports 2% −$22
crypto 1% −$1
other 0% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 125 +67.0% +51.1% 19% 16% +8.1%
≤30d 1176 -25.1% -32.3% 19% 18% -22.2%
≤90d 1427 -6.8% -15.7% 26% 24% -12.7%
all 1433 -6.6% -15.5% 26% 24% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 24% -12.8%
10% -23.6% 22% -21.2%
15% -31.0% 21% -28.8%
20% -37.8% 20% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized+$4
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses377 / 1056
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions36
Markets (closed)1433 / 1471
History coverage120d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day18.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 36 History 1433 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 29? No 95¢ 99¢ $33 $34 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 36°C or below on June 29? Yes 4¢ 47¢ $2 $19 +$17 (+1143%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 29? No 78¢ 80¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 29? Yes 47¢ 32¢ $9 $6 −$3 (-32%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 30? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 30? Yes 0¢ 2¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+380%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 29? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on June 30? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 29? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 30? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 29? Yes 5¢ 7¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+40%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 30? Yes 5¢ 7¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+37%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 30? Yes 7¢ 9¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+27%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 30? Yes 2¢ 13¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+529%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on June 29? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-34%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 29? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+74%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 30? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 30? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 30? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-53%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C on June 30? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-29%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 29? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-43%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 30? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-56%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 30? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 29? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 29? Jun 29 $3 +$2 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 29? Jun 29 $6 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 29? Jun 29 $1 +$1 +93%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 28? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 26? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 28? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 27? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 27? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 27? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 27? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 26? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 28? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 28? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 26? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on June 28? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 27? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 28? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 27? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C or below on June 28? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 28? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 26? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 26? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 28? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 27? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 27? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 25? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 26? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 26? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 65°F or below on June 26? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 26? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 28? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 26? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 27? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 28? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 27? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 28? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 29? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 29? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 29? Jun 28 $12 +$4 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 28? Jun 28 $0 +$4 +1263%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 28? Jun 28 $11 −$10 -95%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 28? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 28? Jun 28 $8 −$5 -72%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 28? Jun 28 $11 +$6 +57%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 28? Jun 28 $28 +$8 +28%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 29? Jun 28 $0 $0 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 28? Jun 28 $3 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 28? Jun 28 $93 +$7 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C or higher on June 28 Jun 28 $1 $0 -71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 29? BUY No 78¢ $9 6m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 29? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 9m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 29? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 10m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 29? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 24m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 29? BUY Yes 47¢ $4 24m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 29? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 24m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 29? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 24m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 29? BUY No 95¢ $9 26m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 29? BUY No 95¢ $10 26m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 29? BUY No 95¢ $5 26m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 29? BUY No 95¢ $10 26m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 29? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 37m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 29? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 45m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 29? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 51m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 29? SELL No 98¢ $98 54m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C on June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 29? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 29? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 29? BUY No 95¢ $95 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 29? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 29? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 29? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 29? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 29? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 29? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 29? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 29? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 29? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.86 · official $98.86 (match) · 3500 history records