Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:19:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.5
score
2D 0x2df2…17cf crypto 110 markets active 5h ago coverage 603d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this Fresh edge
Total PnL +$2,781 (+26%) realized +$2,789 · open −$8
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%54W / 45L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$442now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$497
7 days+$1,069
14 days+$1,069
30 days+$1,069
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 37% +$762
sports 34% +$1,417
other 17% +$101
politics 10% +$623
world 1% −$140
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +80.5% +63.3% 58% 58% +47.6%
≤30d 26 +80.5% +63.3% 58% 58% +47.6%
≤90d 26 +80.5% +63.3% 58% 58% +47.6%
all 99 +28.7% +16.5% 55% 55% +15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.5% 55% +15.7%
10% +5.3% 54% +4.6%
15% -4.8% 52% -5.5%
20% -14.2% 48% -14.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +63% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +55% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$111 vs −$71 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.86 per $1 lost it wins $1.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

603d coverage
Net worth$442
Realized+$2,789
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses54 / 45
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions5
Markets (closed)99 / 110
History coverage603d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $200 $196 −$4 (-2%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 39¢ 38¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $70 $67 −$3 (-4%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes $30 $32 +$2 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$314 +307%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $142 −$140 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$4 -7%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $41 +$74 +180%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $103 −$69 -68%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $152 +$60 +40%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$91 +90%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $112 +$264 +235%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$91 +442%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$42 +83%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $112 −$110 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $57 −$55 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $47 +$209 +442%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +19%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$55 +55%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 +$85 +276%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $31 +$183 +596%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $121 +$129 +107%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $44 +$72 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $40 +$17 +42%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 18 $96 $0 -0%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 12 $846 +$530 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Nov 02 $50 +$49 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Nov 02 $50 +$52 +105%
Will Manchester City vs. Bournemouth end in a draw? Nov 02 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $200 +$66 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Nov 01 $100 +$96 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Nov 01 $105 +$101 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Nov 01 $50 +$48 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Nov 01 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Nov 01 $57 +$81 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Nov 01 $100 +$96 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Nov 01 $100 +$96 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Nov 01 $100 +$95 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Nov 01 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Zcash flip Monero by December 31? Nov 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Nov 01 $46 +$87 +191%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Nov 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-01? Nov 01 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Nov 01 $200 −$200 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Nov 01 $531 +$488 +92%
Magic vs. Hornets Oct 31 $100 +$72 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Oct 30 $76 +$63 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Oct 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $416 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY $40 5h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 39¢ $102 6h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $31 6h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $72 6h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $10 6h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 35¢ $31 6h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 46¢ $47 6h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 6h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $10 9h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $41 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $202 10h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $30 10h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY $51 12h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $101 12h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $41 12h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $41 12h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? AND Will France win on 2026- BUY $26 14h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 14h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 16h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $21 16h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 47¢ $102 29h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $41 32h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 93¢ $96 32h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 32h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a d BUY $18 35h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14 BUY $26 35h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-1 BUY 10¢ $103 35h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 52¢ $51 35h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $441.93 · official $505.39 · 263 history records