Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:24:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2def…9642 other 122 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate19%23W / 98L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$10
14 days−$17
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 28% −$12
sports 26% $0
other 21% −$17
culture 5% −$4
economics 5% −$1
crypto 5% −$2
finance 4% −$3
tech 3% +$4
world 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -0.5% -10.0% 9% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 63 -0.4% -9.9% 10% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 110 -0.3% -9.8% 20% 0% -9.7%
all 121 -0.3% -9.8% 19% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses23 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)121 / 122
History coverage100d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 98¢ 98¢ $57 $57 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $50 −$1 -2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 17 $42 $0 +1%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $92 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 17 $179 −$3 -2%
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 16 $54 −$1 -1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $88 $0 -0%
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $55 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 16 $42 $0 -1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 15 $110 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 15 $50 $0 -1%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $38 $0 -0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $51 −$1 -1%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $190 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $98 −$1 -1%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $63 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $57 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $56 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $109 −$1 -1%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $65 −$1 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $64 $0 -0%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $46 +$1 +2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 10 $71 $0 -0%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $59 −$1 -2%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $118 −$1 -1%
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $203 −$4 -2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $97 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 09 $56 −$1 -2%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $347 −$1 -0%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5) Jun 07 $54 +$5 +8%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $402 +$1 +0%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 06 $63 $0 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 06 $15 $0 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 05 $521 −$2 -0%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $16 $0 -0%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 05 $56 $0 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $166 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? Jun 04 $51 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 04 $58 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $38 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 03 $255 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 02 $46 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $328 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $55 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $51 $0 -1%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $57 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $233 −$1 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $46 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $117 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 30 $83 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $57 48m
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $49 1h
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $41 6h
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $10 6h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 96¢ $42 7h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 94¢ $29 12h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 94¢ $13 12h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $40 12h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $41 19h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $60 20h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $61 28h
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 97¢ $53 29h
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 98¢ $54 34h
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $48 34h
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $48 41h
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $55 42h
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $55 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $41 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $42 2d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 98¢ $54 2d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 98¢ $54 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $50 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $6 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $44 2d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $52 3d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $52 3d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $40 3d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $40 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $62 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $63 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.66 · official $56.66 (match) · 502 history records