Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T05:05:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2ded…3636 other 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 243d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$367 (-2%) realized −$361 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate60%24W / 16L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$439per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$38
14 days+$106
30 days+$108
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% −$307
economics 28% +$208
finance 8% −$37
world 7% −$13
culture 7% +$28
crypto 7% +$50
politics 6% +$73
sports 5% −$369
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-36.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +73.2% +56.7% 100% 100% +56.7%
≤30d 4 +21.5% +9.9% 75% 75% +20.1%
≤90d 19 -39.0% -44.8% 42% 37% -29.3%
all 40 -29.2% -36.0% 60% 20% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.0% 20% -11.3%
10% -42.1% 15% -19.8%
15% -47.7% 15% -27.5%
20% -52.8% 10% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,174) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -16% → late -42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$82 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

243d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized−$361
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses24 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions3
Markets (closed)40 / 43
History coverage243d
Avg bet$439
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $58 $58 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 89¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+6%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 71¢ 22¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 25 $52 +$38 +73%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $92 +$68 +73%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 11 $52 −$51 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $133 +$53 +40%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 28 $103 −$101 -99%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 22 $101 −$101 -100%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 15 $111 −$109 -99%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 09 $12 +$7 +54%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Kolkata Knight Riders May 08 $114 −$112 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Utah May 01 $109 −$107 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $106 −$104 -98%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 24 $48 +$5 +11%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $66 −$65 -99%
Utah vs. Golden Knights Apr 19 $33 −$32 -98%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 11 $133 −$131 -98%
Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers Apr 11 $89 +$39 +44%
Spurs vs. Clippers Apr 11 $119 +$71 +60%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Apr 02 $1,365 +$64 +5%
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 20 Mar 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 19 $1,384 +$14 +1%
US forces enter Iran by March 7? Mar 11 $1,343 +$41 +3%
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? Mar 06 $1,253 +$100 +8%
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? Feb 05 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Feb 04 $234 −$234 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Feb 04 $1,449 +$81 +6%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday? Jan 15 $1,419 +$30 +2%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 07 $1,390 +$28 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Dec 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Maduro out in 2025? Dec 18 $29 −$29 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 18 $235 +$1 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 18 $1,098 +$96 +9%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in November? Dec 04 $80 +$7 +9%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in November? Dec 04 $1,203 +$42 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Nov 20 $1,251 +$32 +3%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 09 $1,174 +$78 +7%
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31? Nov 02 $1,157 +$16 +1%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Oct 30 $55 +$1 +1%
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $60 +$8 +14%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 30 $1,010 +$23 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $59 1h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Milwaukee Brewers 57¢ $52 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $92 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $52 17d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Milwaukee Brewers 71¢ $133 22d
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 61¢ $103 31d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? BUY No 46¢ $4 37d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? BUY No 46¢ $3 37d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? BUY No 46¢ $2 38d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? BUY No 46¢ $92 38d
Sabres vs. Canadiens BUY Canadiens 60¢ $111 45d
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Kolkata Knight Riders BUY Delhi Capitals 52¢ $114 51d
Golden Knights vs. Utah BUY Utah 49¢ $109 58d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25? BUY No 33¢ $106 65d
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 12¢ $61 70d
Suns vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 90¢ $48 70d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-19? BUY No 58¢ $66 70d
Utah vs. Golden Knights BUY Utah 42¢ $33 70d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 42¢ $133 78d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $17 87d
Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers BUY Trail Blazers 69¢ $69 87d
Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers BUY Trail Blazers 70¢ $20 87d
Spurs vs. Clippers BUY Spurs 62¢ $119 87d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? BUY No 95¢ $1,365 101d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? BUY Yes 65¢ $12 101d
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 20 BUY Yes 67¢ $11 101d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 71¢ $10 101d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 99¢ $1,384 109d
US forces enter Iran by March 7? BUY No 97¢ $1,343 114d
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1,253 137d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.74 · official $78.74 (match) · 181 history records