Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:10:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2D
0x2dea…85c1
sports · 7 markets active 1h ago
3.5score
+$4 +11%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$4 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Net worth$19
Realized+$4
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)3 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 4 History 3 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Yes 40¢ 40¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Brazil 32¢ 32¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Qatar 42¢ 40¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 44¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 53¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 +$4 +70%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $5 +$6 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 86% +$9
other 14% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $5 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $5 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $5 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Qatar 42¢ $5 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 26h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $5 26h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $5 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +28.1% +15.9% 67% 67% +16.4%
≤30d 3 +28.1% +15.9% 67% 67% +16.4%
≤90d 3 +28.1% +15.9% 67% 67% +16.4%
all 3 +28.1% +15.9% 67% 67% +16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.9% 67% +16.4%
10% +4.8% 67% +5.3%
15% -5.3% 67% -4.9%
20% -14.6% 67% -14.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.31 · official $19.31 (match) · 9 history records