Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:57:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
2D 0x2dea…b6d1 other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$833 (-19%) realized −$833 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate25%3W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$357per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$9
14 days−$937
30 days−$918
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$929
sports 21% +$51
politics 17% −$8
world 11% +$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -1.7% -11.1% 0% 0% -11.1%
≤30d 8 -25.0% -32.1% 12% 0% -34.3%
≤90d 12 -6.5% -15.4% 25% 8% -27.2%
all 12 -6.5% -15.4% 25% 8% -27.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 8% -27.2%
10% -23.5% 8% -34.2%
15% -30.9% 8% -40.5%
20% -37.7% 8% -46.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$156 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$833
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses3 / 9
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage84d
Avg bet$357
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026? Jun 20 $276 −$6 -2%
US x China tariff agreement by June 30? Jun 19 $278 −$3 -1%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $461 −$460 -100%
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $461 $0 +0%
Game 1: Any Player Rampage? Jun 10 $466 −$466 -100%
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by June 30? Jun 10 $471 −$2 -0%
Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. Fukushima United FC: O/U 5.5 Jun 01 $471 +$19 +4%
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? Jun 01 $470 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 21 $15 $0 -2%
Spread: El Gouna SC (-2.5) Apr 30 $434 +$32 +7%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? Apr 29 $434 $0 +0%
Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026? Mar 30 $43 +$50 +116%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $177 2h
Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $47 2h
Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $46 2h
Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $276 7h
US x China tariff agreement by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $182 29h
US x China tariff agreement by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $93 29h
US x China tariff agreement by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $278 30h
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? BUY No 93¢ $461 7d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $461 7d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $461 7d
Game 1: Any Player Rampage? BUY No 96¢ $466 10d
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $469 10d
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $471 10d
Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. Fukushima United FC: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $471 19d
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $470 19d
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $470 19d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $14 30d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $15 30d
Spread: El Gouna SC (-2.5) BUY Haras El Hodood SC 93¢ $341 52d
Spread: El Gouna SC (-2.5) BUY Haras El Hodood SC 93¢ $93 52d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $434 52d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $336 52d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $98 52d
Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $45 82d
Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $47 82d
Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 84d
Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $22 84d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 30 history records