Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:26:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
2D 0x2de9…0d91 crypto 18 markets active 4d ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$21 (-0%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -65% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -69% what you keep after slip
Net edge-69%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate35%6W / 11L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$690per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$8
14 days+$11
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$22
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-68.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 14 -57.1% -61.2% 43% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 17 -64.6% -68.0% 35% 0% -9.7%
all 17 -64.6% -68.0% 35% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -68.0% 0% -9.7%
10% -71.1% 0% -18.3%
15% -73.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -76.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -65% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$2,055) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -100% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses6 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage34d
Avg bet$690
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No 96¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 13? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 11? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 9? Jun 10 $2,070 +$4 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 9? Jun 09 $2,066 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $2,061 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? Jun 08 $2,058 +$4 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 7? Jun 08 $2,055 +$4 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 7? Jun 07 $2,050 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 3? Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on May 29? May 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on May 28? May 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 25? May 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 on May 20? May 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 16? May 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 14? May 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.81 · official $4.81 (match) · 27 history records