Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:38:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
2D 0x2de6…fb10 sports 111 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$2,620 (+10%) realized +$2,892 · open −$272
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate61%65W / 42L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$233per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$358est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$656now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$684
7 days+$538
14 days+$1,059
30 days+$2,739
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$2,467
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)+1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +7.4% -2.8% 58% 58% -4.8%
≤30d 107 +11.9% +1.2% 61% 61% +0.4%
≤90d 107 +11.9% +1.2% 61% 61% +0.4%
all 107 +11.9% +1.2% 61% 61% +0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.2% 61% +0.4%
10% -8.5% 61% -9.2%
15% -17.3% 61% -18.0%
20% -25.4% 61% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$194 vs −$236 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$656
Realized+$2,892
Unrealized−$272
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses65 / 42
Est. fees paid−$358
Open positions4
Markets (closed)107 / 111
History coverage28d
Avg bet$233
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Tatiana Prozorova vs Heather Watson Heather Watson 54¢ 52¢ $232 $226 −$6 (-3%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Sramkova vs Teodora Kostovic Teodora Kostovic 47¢ 46¢ $232 $225 −$7 (-3%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Darja Semenistaja vs Nao Hibino Nao Hibino 53¢ 24¢ $232 $107 −$125 (-54%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Soon-Woo Kwon vs Arthur Gea Soon-Woo Kwon 51¢ 22¢ $232 $98 −$134 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Julia Riera vs Fiona Crawley Jun 24 $235 +$228 +97%
Bad Homburg Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Clara Tauson Jun 24 $235 −$235 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jerome Kym vs August Holmgren Jun 24 $235 +$210 +89%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Claire Liu Jun 24 $235 +$167 +71%
Bad Homburg Open: Anna Kalinskaya vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 24 $235 +$219 +93%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Lola Radivojevic vs Marina Bassols Riber Jun 23 $231 −$231 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Jun 23 $235 +$206 +88%
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens Jun 23 $236 −$236 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Varvara Lepchenko vs Anastasia Gasanova Jun 23 $235 +$199 +85%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Sara Bejlek vs Laura Siegemund Jun 23 $236 +$268 +114%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maddison Inglis vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 23 $235 −$235 -100%
Mallorca Championships: Damir Dzumhur vs Vit Kopriva Jun 23 $235 −$235 -100%
Mallorca Championships: Lorenzo Sonego vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 23 $235 +$187 +79%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jasmine Paolini vs Tatjana Maria Jun 23 $236 +$235 +100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Daria Kasatkina Jun 22 $235 −$235 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Gustavo Heide Jun 22 $235 +$173 +74%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Pol Martin Tiffo Jun 22 $235 −$235 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Liam Broady vs August Holmgren Jun 22 $235 +$198 +84%
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alex Molcan Jun 22 $235 +$185 +79%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane Jun 22 $235 +$175 +74%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Toby Samuel Jun 21 $235 −$235 -100%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro Jun 21 $235 +$219 +93%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova Jun 21 $235 −$235 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Felix Gill vs Marco Trungelliti Jun 21 $235 −$235 -100%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Mikhail Kukushkin vs Damir Dzum Jun 21 $235 −$235 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Simona Waltert Jun 21 $236 −$236 -100%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Sinja Kraus Jun 21 $235 +$194 +83%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Peyton Stearns vs Kimberly Birre Jun 21 $235 +$167 +71%
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 21 $136 +$120 +88%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Luca Van Assche Jun 20 $235 +$210 +89%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Marie Bouzkova Jun 20 $237 −$237 -100%
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Nick Hardt Jun 19 $235 +$198 +84%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $235 −$235 -100%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Sebastian Ofner Jun 19 $236 −$236 -100%
Poznan: Dalibor Svrcina vs Gustavo Heide Jun 19 $235 +$210 +89%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $235 +$179 +76%
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Jil Teichmann Jun 19 $236 +$237 +101%
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Lucio Ratti Jun 19 $235 +$210 +89%
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Buvaysar Gadamauri Jun 19 $235 −$235 -100%
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 19 $235 −$235 -100%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 18 $235 +$211 +90%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally Jun 18 $235 −$235 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Jun 18 $21 +$16 +78%
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith Jun 17 $235 −$235 -100%
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria Jun 17 $235 +$183 +78%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Michele Ribecai Jun 17 $236 +$187 +79%
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $235 +$179 +76%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $235 +$211 +90%
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle Jun 16 $235 +$175 +74%
Figueira Da Foz: Yeon-Woo Ku vs Lucrezia Stefanini Jun 16 $235 +$210 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Sramkova vs Teodora Kostovic BUY Teodora Kostovic 47¢ $236 11m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Tatiana Prozorova vs Heather Watson BUY Heather Watson 54¢ $235 11m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Darja Semenistaja vs Nao Hibino BUY Nao Hibino 53¢ $235 38m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Julia Riera vs Fiona Crawley SELL Fiona Crawley 100¢ $464 41m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jerome Kym vs August Holmgren SELL Jerome Kym 100¢ $446 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Claire Liu SELL Claire Liu 100¢ $402 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Soon-Woo Kwon vs Arthur Gea BUY Soon-Woo Kwon 51¢ $235 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Anna Kalinskaya vs Gabriela Ruse SELL Gabriela Ruse 100¢ $455 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Claire Liu BUY Claire Liu 58¢ $235 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Julia Riera vs Fiona Crawley BUY Fiona Crawley 50¢ $235 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jerome Kym vs August Holmgren BUY Jerome Kym 52¢ $235 3h
Bad Homburg Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Clara Tauson BUY Qinwen Zheng 64¢ $235 4h
Bad Homburg Open: Anna Kalinskaya vs Gabriela Ruse BUY Gabriela Ruse 51¢ $235 5h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic SELL Daniel Altmaier 99¢ $442 24h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Varvara Lepchenko vs Anastasia Gasanova SELL Anastasia Gasanova 99¢ $434 25h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Sara Bejlek vs Laura Siegemund SELL Sara Bejlek 100¢ $504 25h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Lola Radivojevic vs Marina Bassols Riber BUY Lola Radivojevic 50¢ $231 25h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic BUY Daniel Altmaier 52¢ $235 25h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens BUY Elise Mertens 47¢ $236 27h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Varvara Lepchenko vs Anastasia Gasanova BUY Anastasia Gasanova 53¢ $235 27h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jasmine Paolini vs Tatjana Maria SELL Tatjana Maria 100¢ $470 28h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maddison Inglis vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Maddison Inglis 54¢ $235 28h
Mallorca Championships: Lorenzo Sonego vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 55¢ $235 29h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Sara Bejlek vs Laura Siegemund BUY Sara Bejlek 46¢ $236 29h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jasmine Paolini vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 49¢ $236 30h
Mallorca Championships: Damir Dzumhur vs Vit Kopriva BUY Damir Dzumhur 50¢ $235 30h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Gustavo Heide SELL Gustavo Heide 100¢ $408 46h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Daria Kasatkina BUY Daria Kasatkina 55¢ $235 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Liam Broady vs August Holmgren SELL August Holmgren 99¢ $433 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Gustavo Heide BUY Gustavo Heide 57¢ $235 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $655.63 · official $655.63 (match) · 226 history records