Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:40:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2de5…d7a5 crypto 119 markets active 3h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,367 (-36%) realized −$3,012 · open −$1,355
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%46W / 72L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$52
7 days+$151
14 days+$159
30 days−$2,794
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 31% −$66
other 28% −$2,965
world 23% −$671
tech 7% −$335
crypto 6% −$198
culture 6% −$169
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-38.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -12.2% -20.5% 67% 17% -6.0%
≤30d 56 -37.9% -43.8% 41% 36% -40.1%
≤90d 118 -31.5% -38.0% 39% 36% -35.3%
all 118 -31.5% -38.0% 39% 36% -35.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.0% 36% -35.3%
10% -44.0% 36% -41.5%
15% -49.4% 25% -47.2%
20% -54.3% 14% -52.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 58% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -25% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$68 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized−$3,012
Unrealized−$1,355
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses46 / 72
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)118 / 119
History coverage49d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 21¢ 1¢ $1,428 $73 −$1,355 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 69 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? Jun 25 $676 −$169 -25%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 25 $365 +$120 +33%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? Jun 25 $1,188 +$107 +9%
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $470 +$15 +3%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Jun 21 $1,209 +$83 +7%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 12? Jun 12 $11 +$5 +41%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$2 +28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$2 +25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$3 +47%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$3 +46%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 8-14? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? Jun 08 $6 +$2 +28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $6 +$2 +30%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $704 +$96 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 8? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $5 +$3 +52%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $1,943 −$1,928 -99%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 1-7? Jun 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $6 +$2 +43%
Will Solana dip to $60 June 1-7? Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 5? Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 5? Jun 05 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $4 +$4 +128%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 9? Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 7? Jun 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 4? Jun 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $6 +$2 +42%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 5? Jun 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 03 $383 +$92 +24%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 4? Jun 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? Jun 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 1? Jun 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on May 31? May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 29? May 29 $5 +$3 +59%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 29? May 29 $6 +$2 +40%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? May 29 $1,114 −$1,104 -99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? May 29 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 25-31? May 29 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on May 28? May 28 $6 +$2 +36%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 27? May 28 $2 +$6 +257%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? SELL Yes 51¢ $0 3h
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 99¢ $1 3h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $819 3h
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 99¢ $484 4d
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $485 4d
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? SELL Yes 50¢ $507 4d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $476 4d
Iran coup attempt by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1,292 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 80¢ $6 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 10? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 15d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 12? BUY Yes 80¢ $6 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 15d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 8-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $4 16d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 17¢ $141 16d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 18¢ $192 16d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 17¢ $293 16d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 19¢ $187 16d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 19¢ $294 16d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 12? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 17d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 8? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 76¢ $6 17d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $299 17d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $70 17d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $4 17d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $1 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.58 · official $72.58 (match) · 296 history records