Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:45:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2de5…6a4c politics 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 242d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate12%7W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 48% −$3
sports 23% −$2
other 11% −$1
culture 6% $0
economics 4% $0
world 4% $0
crypto 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.6%
all 57 -5.4% -14.4% 12% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 2% -9.7%
10% -22.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -30.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses7 / 50
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage242d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $87 $87 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 22 $87 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $86 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $89 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 26 $177 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 07 $1 $0 +17%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 04 $86 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 31 $96 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 31 $88 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 29 $86 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 27 $89 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 26 $90 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 24 $86 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 22 $88 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 20 $172 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 18 $88 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 17 $3 $0 -10%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 17 $85 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jan 15 $1 $0 -20%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 15 $180 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 13 $87 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 12 $178 $0 -0%
Will Espanyol win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 10 $87 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 08 $88 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 07 $90 $0 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 04 $90 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 02 $87 $0 +0%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 28 $1 $0 -50%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 28 $88 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 26 $1 $0 -50%
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 26? Dec 26 $91 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 23 $90 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 22 $92 $0 -0%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 20 $89 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 18 $92 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Dec 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $1 $0 -25%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 16 $91 $0 -0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 14 $1 $0 -50%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 14 $93 $0 +0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 10 $91 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 08 $94 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 06 $91 $0 -0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 05 $93 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 02 $93 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Dec 01 $95 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Nov 28 $92 $0 +0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 26 $94 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 21 $93 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 18 $3 $0 -14%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 15 $94 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $87 1h
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 99¢ $87 5d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY No 99¢ $87 16d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $86 22d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $86 27d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $89 29d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $88 121d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $88 140d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 140d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 143d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $86 143d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $86 146d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 147d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 147d
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $88 147d
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $88 148d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 148d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 149d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $86 149d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $86 150d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $89 151d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $89 152d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $89 153d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $90 153d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $85 154d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $86 155d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $88 156d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $88 157d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $86 158d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $87 159d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.78 · official $86.78 (match) · 202 history records