Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:19:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2de4…a7e8 sports 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$108 (-22%) realized −$109 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%5W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$113
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-42.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -36.9% -42.9% 31% 31% -36.4%
≤30d 16 -36.9% -42.9% 31% 31% -36.4%
≤90d 16 -36.9% -42.9% 31% 31% -36.4%
all 16 -36.9% -42.9% 31% 31% -36.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.9% 31% -36.4%
10% -48.4% 31% -42.5%
15% -53.4% 31% -48.1%
20% -57.9% 31% -53.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$22 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized−$109
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses5 / 11
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)16 / 19
History coverage7d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 54¢ 56¢ $48 $49 +$1 (+3%)
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies 53¢ 52¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Cleveland Guardians 42¢ 42¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $19 +$23 +124%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $14 +$15 +109%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $33 +$29 +90%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $23 −$23 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $47 −$47 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $15 +$15 +101%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $37 −$37 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $57 +$49 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 53¢ $32 2h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 54¢ $48 2h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 42¢ $20 3h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 44¢ $19 44h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 39¢ $17 45h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 41¢ $23 45h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 48¢ $11 3d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 44¢ $11 3d
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 47¢ $14 3d
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 43¢ $15 3d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 49¢ $9 4d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 52¢ $33 4d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 47¢ $16 5d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 49¢ $15 5d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 52¢ $47 6d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 37¢ $14 6d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 46¢ $23 6d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 52¢ $37 7d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 53¢ $57 7d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 42¢ $21 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.66 · official $99.66 (match) · 36 history records